While the U.S. press is spinning the German elections as
'inconclusive; no clear winner,' as the New York Times put it,
the figures show a solid victory for the Left, and a defeat
for neo-liberalism. While the Right took 45 percent of the
vote and 286 seats, the Left won 51.1 percent and 327 seats in
the 613 seat Bundestag. In short, there was a 'clear winner,'
the Times not withstanding.
Very good news. But there is still the possibility that Merkel
will get a top job, such as Chancellor or Finance Minster.
Either would be bad news. How much better if Schroder could
form a government without the CDU.
Indeed, Merkel ran a largely stealth campaign, that was
deliberately vague about everything from taxes to foreign
policy. The Economist opined that Merkel was not revealing her
program because 'she must be elected before she can do
anything, and being too candid would diminish her chances.' It
would appear German voters figured this out.
How blatant the Economist is, how arrogant! They openly
disclose that their favorite candidate has secret plans that
she doesn't want voters to know about. The Economist, by the
way, was established in 1843, as a propaganda journal for City
of London financial interests.
Whatever the final outcome, the ripples started in Norway
are spreading south.
...the outcome of the German elections may further bolster the
French Left that was recently energized by its successful 'no'
campaign to torpedo the European Union constitution.
Lastly, there is Italy. Next spring's Italian elections will
most likely see a united Left coalition, L'Unione, drive the
right-wing, pro-American coalition of Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi from power.
a hundredth monkey phenomenon?
rkm
btw> this article comes courtesy of Janet Eaton.
--------------------------------------------------------
http://www.berkeleydaily.org/article.cfm?issue=09-30-05&storyID=22426
As Norway Goes: Old Europe Tilts to the Left
By Conn Hallinan
Berkeley Daily Planet - October 3, 2005 News Analysis
Following Norway's Sept. 12 elections that saw a green- red
coalition turn out a pro-business, anti-immigrant center-right
government, the German daily, Die Tageszeitung, mused that
'perhaps people in Germany could learn something from this.'
It appears they did, and what they learned is likely to be
repeated in Italy and France next spring.
While the U.S. press is spinning the German elections as
'inconclusive; no clear winner,' as the New York Times put it,
the figures show a solid victory for the Left, and a defeat
for neo-liberalism. While the Right took 45 percent of the
vote and 286 seats, the Left won 51.1 percent and 327 seats in
the 613 seat Bundestag. In short, there was a 'clear winner,'
the Times not withstanding.
Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union/ Christian Social
Union (CDU/CSU) party won just 35.2 percent, losing 23 seats.
The only silver lining for the Right was that Merkel's
coalition partner, the neo-liberal Free Democratic Party
(FDP), won 9.8 percent of the vote and 61 seats. However, most
observers think the FDP's success is fleeting, the result of
rank and file CDU/CSU members jumping parties.
The Social Democratic Party (SDP) took 34.3 percent of the
vote, marginally better than it was supposed to get, but
losing 29 seats. The Greens dropped half a percentage point to
8.1 percent and lost four seats.
The real winner was the Left Party, a coalition of the
eastern-based Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS), the former
Communist Party, and the western-based Election Alternative
for Labor and Social Justice (WASG). The latter is an alliance
of left Social Democrats, trade unionists, young people, and
environmentalists turned off by the Green Party leadership's
turn to the right.
The Left Party won 8.7 percent of the vote and 54 seats,
vaulting it past the Greens to become Germany's third largest
party. It also took 25 percent of the vote in the east, and
close to 5 percent in the west. In four western states it
reached 5 percent, the point that makes it possible to serve
in the Bundestag. If it does well in upcoming state
parliamentary elections, it will fundamentally alter the
political balance of power in Germany.
As it did in the 2002 German elections, Iraq loomed large.
While Merkel said she would not send troops, the CDU/CSU
strongly supported the invasion, and voters were clearly
nervous about where that might lead if she assumed power. For
instance, the Bush Administration has been pushing the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to assume combat
operations in Afghanistan, a move the German Left strongly
opposed. The CDU/CSU was evasive about the proposal.
Indeed, Merkel ran a largely stealth campaign, that was
deliberately vague about everything from taxes to foreign
policy. The Economist opined that Merkel was not revealing her
program because 'she must be elected before she can do
anything, and being too candid would diminish her chances.' It
would appear German voters figured this out.
Merkel started out with a 21-point lead that partly reflected
widespread disenchantment with the SDP/Green coalition's
Agenda 2010, which favored business while cutting jobless
benefits and social services. However, the Left Party's
platform of raising minimum wages, restoring benefit cuts, and
questioning the presence of U.S. bases in Germany drove the
campaign to the left. It was clearly what the voters wanted,
and they responded by tanking the right, spanking the SDP and
the Greens, and rewarding the new Left Party.
What the government will eventually look like is by no means
clear at press time. The voters appear to want a red-red-green
alliance. But for the time being, Prime Minster Gerhard
Schroder of the SDP and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of
the Greens are ruling that out. The most talked about
formations are the so-called 'Grand Alliance' between the SDP
and the CDU/CSU, or an odd-fellow alliance of Greens and the
Right.
Whatever the final outcome, the ripples started in Norway are
spreading south.
France's right-wing Interior Minister Nicholas Sarkozy latched
on to Merkel's brand of neo-liberalism as the salvation of
France and the European Union. Her defeat will certainly put a
crimp in his drive for the French presidency, giving the
inside track to the more moderate candidacy of Prime Minister
Dominique de Villepin. But, more importantly, the outcome of
the German elections may further bolster the French Left that
was recently energized by its successful 'no' campaign to
torpedo the European Union constitution.
Lastly, there is Italy. Next spring's Italian elections will
most likely see a united Left coalition, L'Unione, drive the
right-wing, pro-American coalition of Prime Minister Silvio
Berlusconi from power. L'Unione candidates took 12 out of 14
regional elections last spring, and the parties that comprise
it have been at the core of street demonstrations and social
actions around everything from globalization, to ending
poverty and homelessness, to opposing the Iraq War.
The most recent poll shows L'Unione at 49.7 percent and the
right at 45.2 percent.
L'Unione is a merger of the Partido della Rifondazione
Comunista, Left Democrats, the left-center Margherita Party,
and a host of smaller regional and social action parties. The
Berlusconi government is presently trying to ram through a
series of electoral changes in an effort to dilute the power
of the smaller regional parties, but the maneuver is so
patently undemocratic that it has even caused tensions within
his right-wing coalition.
Nor does the Italian Left see itself as just a national
movement. Fausto Bertinotti, Rifondazione's current general
secretary and a moving force behind L'Unione, is giving up his
post to work on organizing a party of the European Left.
Oh, and shortly after the elections, Norwegian Labor party
leader Jens Stoltenberg announced that Norway will withdraw
its small contingent of troops from Iraq.
Ya' gotta' love that old Europe.
New Europe, on the other hand, still has a way to go.
Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, Poland's former prime minister and
Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) candidate, withdrew from the
Oct. 9 race for president because of corruption charges. His
withdrawal leaves the Polish Left in disarray, and will
probably mean that Donald Trusk of the neo-liberal Civic
Platform (PO) will win the presidency (although his party took
a hit in last Sunday's election).
Trusk has been heavily supported by foreign investors and
Polish business for promising to reduce regulations and for
his plan to impose a 15 percent flat tax. Trusk has been close
to Angela Merkel and advocates rapid privatization of state
assets.
The SLD won the 2001 parliamentary elections, but corruption
scandals brought it down.
Trusk is popular, in part because he has publicly challenged
neighboring Belarus about its treatment of its Polish
minority. Nationalism-always a winner in Poland-may sweep him
into office. Whether the majority of Poles want a heavy dose
of neo-liberalism is another matter. PO was favored to win the
Parliamentary elections this past Sunday, but came in second
to the center right Law and Justice Party that opposed the tax
and a number of other neo-liberal schemes.
And whoever wins, the Poles will probably withdraw their 1,500
troops from Iraq.
[Conn Hallinan is a journalist and an analyst for Foreign
Policy in Focus.]
--
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