What’s likely to happen over the next few months?


Richard Moore


I'd like to share, below, an evolving thread from our new
blog, "the cyberjournal forum".  I believe this material
will of interest to newslog subscribers. More than than, I
invite you to visit the blog and consider adding your own
two cents as comments.

If you go to the forum URL, you see all the main posts, with
comments available in pop-up windows. If you go to the
thread URL, you see that one thread expanded, with post and
comments all together in a very readable format.

don't be afraid to blog,

cyberjournal forum

MONDAY, MARCH 06, 2006
What's likely to happen over the next few months?

Earl's scared-child-going-down-slide image does capture, as
I too see it, the nature of the perilous times facing us in
the very near future. Earl says "weeks" and he may be on the

In my estimation,the gravest immediate threat is a nuclear
attack on Iran. Others, such as Chris Cook, who are
in-the-know, argue against that eventuality: "What the Iran
'nuclear issue' is really about" He sees US oil security as
being the root of US policy, and dismisses the Engdahlian
view [I was wrong about Engdahl here, see later comments on
this thread - rkm], which I share, that sees primacy in the
strategy of oil-based financial dominance. At the core of
our disagreement are different judgments regarding which
elements are at the top of the power pyramid, and what are
their perceived self-interests.

Michel Chossudovsky offers a comprehensive overview on the
Iran situation, transcribed from a radio broadcast,
http://rense.com/general69/nuke.htm. Regardless of our
geopolitical theories, the signs from the White House,
Pentagon, and Tel Aviv seem to clearly signal that an attack
project is in progress.

Some observers focus their attention on an anticipated
meltdown of the US economy, based on a number of
considerations. Bruce Porteous covers the ground rather well
in "The Coming Economic Collapse". Many others focus more
specifically on peak oil and/or global warming, talking not
just about an economic meltdown, but the collapse of
civilization itself. Others focus on the increasingly
fascist nature of the US government in the wake of 911, and
present evidence of a network of internment centers, and
other signs that the Third Reich model is being
systematically implemented.

In considering the whole picture-at the level of the child
on the slide-I think it is important to keep two things in
mind: (1) all of these things are unfolding at the same
time, and (2) whoever is behind US policy is aware of the
whole scenario. To assume less of 'them' would be naive. If
a war is being planned in Iran, we can assume there are
corresponding plans underway to deal with oil shortages,
economic collapse, anti-war sentiment, etc. I don't mean
deal with them in the way you and I would consider sensible,
but deal with them in a way that serves 'their' perceived
long-term self-interest.


posted by rkm @ 11:55 PM

At 11:39 PM, rkm said...
William Engdahl just sent me a new article he wrote about
the Iran situation, and in particular dealing with the Euro
Bourse issue. The article is now featured on the
cyberjournal home page: Is the Iran Oil Bourse the casus

Like Chris Cook, whose article was cited in the opening post
to this thread, William discounts the Euro Bourse as being a
central motivation for the anticipted invasion. He explains
how the dollar's status as a reserve currency is not based
on petrodollars, but on a broader canvas of factors. An
important analysis for those of trying to understand where
the scary slide is headed.
At 11:55 AM, Chris Cook said...
The UK's Channel Four have a got a team in Iran all this
week, and there is some great stuff coming out.

I was interviewed by them recently re the Oil Bourse and a
segment on that subject should be on Channel Four News soon,
once they've got interviews with the key Iranians in the

In the meantime I believe that
iran_saviour_of.html#more backs my view that the whole
"nuclear" issue is a charade (which suits both sides) played
out to hide the real issue which is the desperate US
attempts to fix Iraq.

Best Regards

Chris Cook
At 5:08 PM, Earl said...
I've been one who has subscribed to the Petro-Dollar theory,
of which I first read in William Clark's essay "The Real
Reasons for the Upcoming War With Iraq" in early 2003. (
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/RRiraqWar.html )

Now comes William Engdahl with his essay, and I can also
follow his logic and presentation of facts, and it may be
closer to the outline of what is happening than the Petro
Dollar/Euro alone.

Rather than try come to any conclusion at this point, my
mind is still working on all that's been presented already
in this blog, plus Clark's Petro-Dollar theory PLUS
Engdahl's theory. All of these are working together, as I
see it. I'm just trying to think out loud here and see what
commentary others may have, and together we may be able to
make a reasonable outline of what is really playing.

Engdahl is saying - if I understand him correctly - that
what has always been considered the case, IS indeed the
case. - That an invasion of Iran, one of the 3 "axes of
evil" was in the planning since 1996, as proposed by Freith
and Perle. - That the U.S. economy takes the recycled
dollars paid by purchases of oil by other countries and
reinvests them, often in loans to developing countries.
That, in turn, holds these countries in check and under the
neocolonial Western rule, and chiefly the U.S., adding to
its economy by sucking these countries dry and keeping them
weak. - That the U.S. economy is distinctly more organized
and larger/stronger than the ECB countries, thus no real
challenge from the euro. Yet, anyway. - That the debt
purchased by other countries is still growing and will
continue to grow for fear of the dollar collapsing in value;
and that this is going to continue for the foreseeable
future. - That the U.S. military, having a presence in over
100 countries, is unchallengeable. Period. Another person
said (paraphrased) that there is no McDonald's without
McDonnell. This, I think, is an unarguable given. (But don't
underestimate newer weapons being developed or new ones on
the scene from chiefly Russia.)

In my mind, these are all factual, and are argueably the
'main outline as planned' facts of U.S. economic and
military dominance as outlined by Perle and Feith.

But the other factors already mentioned do have a distinct
bearing on the 'main outline'; having a great deal of
influence on the timing, 'mid course corrections' and
strategy. Thus, oil security is an important part. With
this, the U.S. assures itself of enough oil for its own
purposes, plus having control of much of the world's oil
gives the U.S. political and economic leverage on other

The Petro Dollar/Petro Euro situation is important to the
U.S. for economic dominance. If more and more countries
switch to the Euro, which they are doing, officially or not,
that weakens the dollar. It is known that the Euro is in
unofficial use for general trade in a number of countries,
Russia, former Yugoslavia, non EC European countries and
some South American ones. One can get along nicely with
Euros there. If the Euro now is the currency for the Iranian
oil bourse beginning this month, there will be a cascade
effect. Norway has also uttered its wishes for its own
bourse in Euros. Venezuela is, I think, preparing for
selling its oil at least partly in Euros, and is one of the
big oil suppliers. Exactly where this will lead is not for
me to predict, but it will spell problems for the Dollar.
And I still think that the Iranian oil bourse and its
consequences has a great effect on the timing of the coming
invasion of Iran, as well as 'one more log in the fire' for
the reasons to invade. Iranian oil, and the currency it is
sold in, must remain under the dominance of the U.S.; Iran
is a key nation.

What has not been mentioned in this blog is another reason
for all the U.S. military bases, and Iraq plays a great role
here with the immense new bases being built, not to mention
the large U.S. 'green zone' for colonial rule. The proximity
to China, Russia, the whole Middle East, and other populous
and cheap labor countries as Pakistan and India are also
important for the military/economic dominance.

I am not so sure the Japanese and Chinese holding of huge
amounts of U.S. debt is going to continue as it has.
Especially China seems to be gradually turning in the
direction of the Euro, diminishing its Dollars. Gradual,
'play it as it goes', may be the strategy here, bringing
ever increasing pressure on the U.S. economy.

These are a few thoughts put together rather quickly.
Perhaps with more input and correction from others, we can
form a better outline of what is really happening. I see
Engdahl's essay as a general outline, but the other factors
such as Petro Dollars/Euros also being of great importance.
At 5:55 PM, rkm said...
Thanks Earl, for putting our issues into a broader context,
and expressed very clearly.

Cetainly Iran must be considered in the larger geopolitical
framework, not only as regards the power of the dollar, and
control over oil, but also, as you say, its strategic

Zbigniew Brzezinski, in The Grand Chessboard: American
Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, identifies this
region, and in praticular Afghanistan, as being the key to
the control of Eurasia.

And we must never forget the PNAC agenda (a product of the
neocon crwod), which makes it very clear that global
military domination is the objective being
pursued: http://newamericancentury.org/

Here's a question I have: Are Russia and / or China ever
going to confront the Evil Empire? From their perspective,
they must view America's campaign of conquest and aggression
much as we viewed Hitler's initial blitzkrieg attcks. How
long are they going to stay on the path of appeasement? What
kind of counter-measures might they consider, and where
might they be 'drawing the line'?
At 9:52 AM, rkm said...
Here's a European perspective on what to expect later this month.

"EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture
March 20-26, 2006: Iran/USA - Release of global 
world crisis": 

It begins:
     "The Laboratoire européen d'Anticipation Politique Europe
     2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability
     that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of
     the most significant political crisis the world has known
     since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an
     economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with
     that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the
     turning-point of a number of critical developments,
     resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a
     major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military
     intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is
     conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises
     up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020."
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Links to this post:

   * J.S. Clark
   * RML
   * Earl
   * rkm
   * T K Wilson
   * Chris Cook
   * Butler Crittenden

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