Global warming? It’s natural, say experts


Richard Moore

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Global warming? It's natural, say experts
by BARRY WIGMORE - More by this author »
Last updated at 22:36pm on 13th September 2007
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Global warming is a natural event and the effects are not all bad, two respected
researchers claimed yesterday.

Authors Dennis Avery and Fred Singer looked at the work of more than 500 
scientists and argue that these experts are doubtful the phenomenon is caused by
man-made greenhouse gases.

Climate change is much more likely to be part of a cycle of warming and cooling 
that has happened regularly every 1,500 years for the last million years, they 

And the doom and gloom merchants, who point to the threat to the polar bear from
the melting North Pole, are wrong, the authors say.

Even if our climate is changing, it is not all bad, they suggest, because past 
cold periods have killed twice as many people as warm periods. Mr Avery said: 
"Not all of these researchers who doubt man-made climate change would describe 
themselves as global warming sceptics but the evidence in their studies is there
for all to see.

"Two thousand years of published human histories say that the warm periods were 
good for people.

"It was the harsh, unstable Dark Ages and the Little Ice Age that brought bigger
storms, untimely frost, widespread famine, plagues and disease."

Mr Singer said: "We have a greenhouse theory with no evidence to support it, 
except a moderate warming turned into a scare by computer models whose results 
have never been verified with real-world events.

"The models only reflect the warming, not its cause."

The most recent global warming was between 1850 and 1940, the authors say, and 
was therefore probably not caused by man-made greenhouse gases.

Historical evidence of the natural cycle includes a record of floods on the Nile
going back 5,000 years; Roman wine production in Britain in the first century 
AD; and thousands of museum paintings that portray sunnier skies during what is 
called the Medieval Warming, and more clouds during the Little Ice Age.

The authors looked at a raft of studies which, they claim, undermine the 
"scare-mongering" by those blaming man for destroying the planet.

In the current warming cycle, they say there is evidence that storms and 
droughts have been fewer and milder; corals, trees, birds, mammals and 
butterflies have adapted well; and sea levels are not rising significantly.

Mr Avery is a fellow of the Hudson Institute, an independent U.S. thinktank that
tends to side with big business.

He was a senior agricultural analyst at the State Department when Ronald Reagan 
was president. Mr Singer is a climate physicist.

The pair spent months analysing scientific reports for their book, Unstoppable 
Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, to counter claims made by former U.S. Vice 
President Al Gore in his film An Inconvenient Truth.

They argue that variations in the Sun's radiation have far more influence on our
climate than humans.

Mr Singer said: "This can all be explained by the Sun's activity."

He added: "The number of the Sun's cosmic rays hitting the Earth affect the 
number of low, cooling clouds that reflect solar heat back into space, 
amplifying small variations in the intensity of the Sun."

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