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The "Assassin's Mace":
A Worst-case Scenario for the New American Century
By Victor N. Corpus
Asian Times
(March 30, 2006)
Why worst case? Because of hard lessons from history ' - '
that's why. The Romans did not consider the worst case
scenario when Hannibal crossed the Alps with his elephants
and routed them; or when Hannibal encircled and annihilated
the numerically superior Roman army at the Battle of
Cannae. The French did not consider the worst case
scenario at Dien Bien Phu and when they built the Maginot
Line, and the French suffered disastrous defeats. The
Americans did not consider the worst case scenario at Pearl
Harbor or in September 11, and the results were disastrous
for the American people. Again, American planners did not
consider the worst case scenario in its latest war in Iraq,
but instead delved on the "best case scenario" such as
considering the Iraq invasion as a "cake walk" and that the
Iraqi people will be parading in the streets, throwing
flowers, and welcoming American soldiers as "liberators",
only to discover the opposite.
Scenario One: America Launches "Preventive War" vs. China
"Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival.
This is a dominant consideration underlying the new regional defense
strategy and requires that we endeavor to prevent any hostile power
from dominating a region whose resources would, under consolidated
control, be sufficient to generate global power. These regions
include Western Europe, East Asia, the territory of the former Soviet
Union, and Southwest Asia."
- Paul Wolfowitz, former U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy
and currently the President of World Bank
Since 1978, China has averaged 9.4% annual GDP growth
5-fold increase in total output per capita from 1982-2002
$61 billion in Foreign Direct Investment in 2004 alone
Foreign trade of $851 B; third largest in the world
U.S. trade deficit with China exceeded $200 billion in $750
Billion in Foreign Exchange Reserves
Second biggest oil importer
442,000 new engineers a year; with 48,000 graduates with masters'
degrees and 8,000 Ph.D's annually (Howard French); compared to only
60,000 new engineers a year in the U.S.
China for the first time (2004) has surpassed America to export the
most technology wares around the world. China enjoyed a $34B trade
surplus w/US in advanced technology products in 2004 (The Economist,
Dec 17, 2005). In 2005, the surplus has increased to $36 B
20,000 new manufacturing facilities a year
Low cost, vast manpower reserves combined with financial and
technological strengths of rich neighbors
Holds $252 Billion in U.S. Treasury Bonds (plus $48 B held by Hong
Kong)
"Among the five basic food, energy, and industrial commodities ' -
' grain and meat, oil and coal, and steel ' - ' consumption in China
has eclipsed that of U.S. in all but oil." (Lester Brown)
China has also gone ahead of U.S. in consumption of TV sets,
refrigerators and mobile phones
In 1996 China had 7 m cell phones & the U.S. had 44 m. Now "China
has more mobile phone users than the U.S. has people." (Jeff Sloan)
China has about $1 trillion in personal savings and a savings rate of close
to 50%; U.S. has about $158 billion in personal savings and a
savings rate of about 2% (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)
Shanghai boasts 4,000 skyscrapers ' - ' double the number in New York
City (The Wall Street Journal, Nov 19, 2005)
Songbei, Harbin City in North China is building a city as big as
New York City
Goldman Sachs predicts that China will surpass U.S. economy by 2041.
Before China's economy catches up with America, and before China
builds a military machine that can challenge American superpower
status and world dominance, American top strategic planners ("Project
for the New American Century") decide to launch a "preventive war"
against China. As a pretext for its "preventive war", the U.S.
instigates Taiwan to declare independence.
Taiwan declares independence!
China has anticipated and long prepared itself for this event. After
observing "Operation Summer Pulse ' - ' 04" when seven U.S. aircraft
carrier battle groups converged in the waters off China's coast in
mid-July through August of 2004, Chinese planners began preparing to
face its own worst-case scenario: the possibility of confronting a
total of fifteen carrier battle groups composed of twelve from
America and three from its close British ally. China's strategists
refer to its counter-strategy to defeat 15 or more aircraft carrier
battle groups as the "assassin's mace".
After proper coordination with Russia and Iran and activating their
previously agreed strategic plan, involved troops and weapon systems
are pre-positioned. China then launches a missile barrage on Taiwan.
Command and control nodes, military bases, logistics centers, vital
war industries, government centers, and air defense installations are
simultaneously hit with short and medium range ballistic missiles
armed with conventional, anti-radar, thermo baric, and
electro-magnetic pulse warheads.
At the North American Aerospace Defense (NORAD) Command and Control
Center, ranking defense officials watch huge electronic monitor
screens show seven U.S. and two British aircraft carrier battle
groups converging towards China Sea with another three U.S. carrier
battle groups entering the Persian Gulf, while the remaining two U.S.
and one British battle groups remain in the Indian Ocean to serve as
strategic reserve.
As the aircraft carrier battle groups advance, China draws out one of
its "trump cards" by leaking to the world media that it is dumping
its holdings of U.S. treasury bonds and shifting to gold and euro
currency.
Meanwhile, strategic planners at NORAD watch with glee as they
observe on the screen as monitored by their radar satellites that
Chinese surface ships make a hasty retreat as nine allied carrier
battle groups advance toward the Philippine Sea and Chinese waters
near Taiwan.
The "Assassin's Mace"
China's anti-satellite weapons - Glee and ecstasy soon turn to shock
as monitor screens suddenly go blank! Then all communication via
satellites goes dead! China has drawn its second "trump card" (the
"assassin's mace") by activating its maneuverable "parasite" micro-
satellites that have unknowingly clung to vital (NORAD) radar and
communication satellites and have either jammed, blinded, or
physically destroyed their hosts. This is complemented by space mines
that maneuver near adversary satellites and explode. Secret Chinese
and Russian ground- based anti-satellite laser weapons also blind or
bring down U.S and British satellites used for C4ISR (command,
control, communication, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance). And to ensure redundancy and make sure that the
adversary C4ISR system is completely "blinded" even temporarily,
hundreds of select Chinese and Russian information warriors (hackers)
specifically trained to attack their adversary's C4ISR systems
simultaneously launch their cyber offensive.
For a few precious minutes, U.S. and U.K. advancing carrier battle
groups are stunned and blinded by the "mace" i.e., a defensive weapon
used to temporarily blind a stronger opponent. But the word "mace"
has another meaning; one which is deadlier and used in combination
with the first. The other meaning of "mace" is a spiked war club used
in olden times to knock out an opponent. Applied in modern times, the
"spikes" of the "assassin's mace" refer to currently unstoppable
supersonic cruise missiles capable of sinking aircraft carriers that
are in China's inventory; complemented by equally unstoppable
"squall" or SHKVAL rocket torpedoes and regular 65 cm.-diameter
wake-homing torpedoes, bottom- rising rocket-propelled mines, and
"obsolete" warplanes converted into unmanned combat aerial vehicles
(UCAVs) firing anti-ship missiles from standoff positions and
finally dive-bombing into the heart of the U.S. and U.K. aircraft
carrier battle groups armada.
Missile Barrage on Advancing Carrier Battle Groups - A few seconds
after the "blackout", literally hundreds of short and medium range
ballistic missiles (DF7/9/11/15s, DF4s, DF21X/As) pre-positioned in
the China mainland, and stealthy, sea-skimming and highly-accurate
cruise missiles (YJ12s, YJ22s, KH31A/Ps, YJ83s, C301s, C802s, SS-N-
22s, SS-NX-26/27s, 3M54s & HN3s) delivered from platforms on land,
sea, and air race toward their respective designated targets at
supersonic speed. Aircraft carriers are allotted a barrage of more
than two dozen cruise missiles each, followed by a barrage of short
and medium range ballistic missiles timed to arrive in rapid
succession.
Supersonic cruise missiles constitute China's third deadly "trump
card" against the United States ' - ' part of the so-call "assassin's
mace" (or spiked war club of old used to bludgeon the adversary).
These unstoppable cruise missiles may be armed with 440-lb to 750-lb
conventional warheads (or 200-kiloton tactical nuclear warheads ten
times stronger than Hiroshima) traveling at more than twice the speed
of sound (or "faster than a rifle bullet"). The cruise missiles,
together with the SRBMs and MRBMs (short & medium range ballistic
missiles) may also be armed with radio frequency weapons that can
simulate the electro-magnetic pulse of nuclear explosions to fry
computer chips, or fuel-air explosives that can annihilate the
personnel in aircraft carriers and battleships without destroying the
platforms. Their effective range varies from less than 100 to 1800
kilometers from stand-off positions. Delivered by long-range
fighter-bombers and submarines, their range can be extended even
further. In fact, stealthy Chinese and Russian submarines can deliver
such nuclear payloads to the U.S. mainland itself.
No U.S. Defense versus Supersonic Cruise Missiles - The U.S. and U.K.
aircraft carrier battle groups do not have any known defense against
the new supersonic missiles of their adversaries. The Phalanx and
Aegis ship defense systems may be effective against subsonic cruise
missiles like the Exocets or Tomahawks, or exo-atmospheric ballistic
missiles, but they are inadequate against the sea-skimming and
supersonic Granits, Moskits and Yakhonts or similar types
(Shipwreck, Sunburn and Onyx NATO codenames) of modern anti-ship
missiles in China's inventory. Not only China and Russia have these
modern cruise missiles, but Iran, India and North Korea have them
too. These missiles can be delivered by SU 27 variants, SU30s, Tu22M
Blackjacks, Bears, J6s, JH-7/As, H-6Hs, J-10s, surface ships,
diesel submarines, or common trucks.
China's Rocket Torpedoes - Adding to the problem of aircraft carriers
are the "SHKVAL" or "squall" rocket torpedoes installed in some
Chinese and Russian submarines and surface ships. At 6,000 lbs.
apiece, these rocket torpedoes travel at 200 knots (or 230 mph) with
a range of 7,500 yards and guided by autopilot. They are designed to
sink aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. Again, it is
unfortunate for the U.S. and U.K. to have no known or existing
defense against this new generation of rocket torpedoes.
China's Sea Mines ' - ' Complicating matters for the U.S. aircraft
carrier battle groups are the hundreds of hard-to-detect,
rocket-propelled, bottom-rising sea mines that are anchored and
hidden in the sea bottom covering the pre-selected battle site in the
China Sea and Philippine Sea designed to home in on submarines and
surface ships, particularly aircraft carriers. These sophisticated
sea mines (EM-52s) have been deployed by Chinese and Russian
submarines before the missile attack on Taiwan in anticipation of the
major event that is to follow.
Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles ' - ' Finally, on top of all these
asymmetric weapons, the U.S. and U.K. aircraft carrier battle groups
will have to contend with the thousands of "obsolete" Chinese fighter
planes converted into Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs)
launching missiles at stand-off positions and finally diving
"kamikaze" style into the heart of the carrier battle groups.
Submarines Complete Encirclement - Chinese and Russian submarines
fire their inventory of anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and
"squall" rocket torpedoes at the aircraft carriers and submarines of
the U.S. and U.K. as the carrier battle groups come within range. As
the battle progresses, the Chinese and Russian submarines maneuver to
the rear of the carrier battle groups to complete the encirclement.
In less than an hour after the launching of the saturation barrage of
missiles that rained on the U.S. and U.K. naval armada, all the
aircraft carriers and their escorts of cruisers, battleships, and
several of the accompanying submarines are in flames, sinking, or
sunk, turning the China Sea and Philippine Sea into a modern-day
"Battle of Cannae".
Meanwhile, the Chinese fleet that conducted a strategic retreat forms
a phalanx along the forward positions of China's coast, ready to
augment the hundreds or thousands of land-based long-range
surface-to- air missiles of China (SA-10s, SA-15s, & SA-20s) with
their own short, medium, and long-range air defense missile systems.
Applying its long-held military doctrine of "active defense", China
also launches simultaneous missile attacks on the forces-in-being and
logistics-in-place of the U.S. and its allies in Japan, South Korea,
Guam, Okinawa, Diego Garcia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, hitting
these U.S. bases with missiles armed with radio frequency weapons,
fuel-air explosives, and conventional warheads. As another Chinese
military doctrine states: "Win victory with one strike".
Chinese/Russian ICBMs/SLBMs are Cocked ' - ' Both Chinese and Russian
inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine- launched
ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and the two countries' extensive air
defense systems have been coordinated and ready to respond in the
event that the U.S. and U.K. decide to retaliate with a nuclear
attack.
China's deadly "trump cards" (i.e., the huge holdings of U.S.
treasury bonds, the anti-satellite weapons system, the supersonic
anti-ship cruise missiles, SRBMs, MRBMs, "squall" rocket torpedoes,
sea mines, UCAVs, DF31A and DF41 road-mobile ICBMs, JL2 SLBMs, air
defense system, IO/EW/IW, and other RMA weapons) are the key
ingredients of the "assassin's mace". China may not possess any of
those expensive aircraft carriers of the superpower, but it can wipe
out those carrier battle groups with a "single blow" of its so-called
"assassin's mace" ' - ' its major tool for conducting asymmetric
warfare to defeat the United States in a major confrontation over the
Taiwan issue or other issues in the future. The United States may
possess the most powerful war machine in the world, but it can be
defeated by an inferior force by avoiding the superpower's strength
and exploiting its weaknesses. Again, an integral part of Chinese
doctrine is: "Victory through inferiority over superiority". One
famous Chinese strategist, Chang Mengxiong, compared asymmetric
warfare to "a Chinese boxer with a keen knowledge of vital body
points who can bring a stronger opponent to his knees with a minimum
of movement."
The sad part is that even if U.S. planners come to realize that the
aircraft carrier battle groups (which are the mainstay of the U.S.
Navy and the main instrument of U.S. power projection worldwide),
have been rendered vulnerable or obsolete by China's "assassin's
mace", the U.S. cannot simply change strategy or discard such weapons
system. To change strategy or "retool" would mean the loss of
hundreds of billions of dollars invested into those highly
sophisticated systems; the strong lobbying of influential defense
contractors making those systems would make change extremely
difficult; for defense authorities to admit the strategic blunder
would also be a big barrier to change of strategy; and the loss of
hundreds of thousands of jobs related to those systems may be
politically and economically unbearable for any U.S. sitting
administration to bear if the program for the aircraft carrier battle
groups is scrapped. Because of these factors, America may be stuck
with an obsolete system that is too expensive to maintain but will
lose the war for the U.S. when employed in a major conflict.
Middle East Front
Meanwhile, in another major front, upon previously coordinated
signals with China and Russia, Iran lets loose her own barrage of
supersonic Granit, Moskit, Brahmos, and Yakhont cruise missiles
carried by common trucks or hidden in man-made tunnels all along the
mountainous shoreline of Iran fronting the Persian Gulf. The three
U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups that entered the Persian Gulf to
ensure the unhindered flow of Arab oil are likened to helpless
"sitting ducks" against the bottom-rising sea mines and low-flying,
supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles in Iranian hands. In the
process, a couple of U.S. oil tankers about to exit the Strait of
Hormuz are also hit, thus effectively blockading the narrow strait
and blocking U.S. oil supply coming out of the Middle East with the
aid of rocket-propelled sea mines.
A "weak" nation like China or Iran, without a single aircraft carrier
in their respective navies, can thus obliterate the carrier battle
groups of a superpower. Here, one can see the hidden and often
unnoticed power of asymmetric warfare, which may well spell the end
of "gunboat diplomacy" in the not so distant future.
Central Asian Front
Also, in yet another major front, this time in Central Asia, Russian
troops lead the other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and
Tajikistan) into a major offensive against U.S. military bases in
Central Asia. The target bases are first subjected to a simultaneous
barrage of missiles with fuel-air explosives and EMP warheads before
they are over- run and occupied by the SCO coalition forces. The
missile attack on the U.S. bases is followed by a lightning
"blitzkrieg" attack by 4 mechanized armored divisions coming from the
"Yili Korgas Pass" of China's Xinjiang province, linking up with
Russia's own armored divisions in a pincer offensive against U.S.
forces in Central Asia and the Middle East.
America Crippled in Three Major Fronts
In just a few hours (or days) after the outbreak of general
hostilities, America, the world's lone superpower, finds itself badly
crippled militarily in three major regions of the world: Southeast
Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East.
Impossible? Unfortunately the answer is: NO. China now has the
know-how and the financial resources to mass-produce hundreds, if not
thousands of Moskit, Yakhont, and Granit-types of supersonic
anti-ship cruise missiles and "squall"-type rocket torpedoes against
which U.S. and U.K. aircraft carriers and submarines have no known
defense. Iran, on the other hand, is already in possession of the
same supersonic cruise missiles that can destroy any ship in the
Persia Gulf, including U.S. aircraft carriers. Russia and China,
meanwhile, are operating on familiar grounds close to its territory,
compared to the U.S. that needs to cross the Atlantic and Pacific to
replenish troops and logistics.
A Geopolitical Reality America has to Face
An important consideration in a U.S.-China conflict is the
geopolitical reality that the U.S. and its allies will be operating
on exterior lines while China will operate on interior lines. This
gives China a huge advantage in a major war in Asia against U.S
allied forces.
Consider the long sea lanes of communication (10,000 kilometers) that
the U.S. alliance will be forced to cross each time its forces will
re- supply and you get an idea of the huge logistics problem that the
US will face in its confrontation with China. Such lengthy sea lanes
of communication (SLOC) are highly vulnerable to a gauntlet of
Chinese and Russian submarines lying in ambush along the route laden
with underwater sea mines . This will make the transport of personnel
and equipment by the United States over the Pacific or the Atlantic
extremely dangerous and expensive.
Compare this U.S. handicap with troop movement by Chinese troops
using heavy-lift aircraft, railways and highways within the China
mainland. China's interior lines of communication are shorter and
protected, with little chance for enemy interdiction. Chinese troops
can concentrate numerically superior forces rapidly at any given
point to defeat the invading U.S. forces one by one with much shorter
and less vulnerable lines of communications.
And in the event that the U.S. forces and its allies are lucky enough
to land their forces on the Chinese mainland, they will be faced not
only with a conventional People's Liberation Army of more than two
million strong, but also with a people's militia conducting
asymmetric warfare and people's war in their teeming millions! U.S
forces and their allies will be likened to a raging bull charging and
goring a hive of killer bees. U.S. forces may be able to set foot in
China, but it is highly doubtful if they can come out of it alive.
Grimmer Scenarios
There is a scenario grimmer than described above, however, and that
is if strategic planners belonging to that elite group called the
"Project for the New American Century" (or PNAC) decide to launch a
nuclear "first strike" against China and Russia and risk a mutually-
assured destruction: 1) in defense of Taiwan... or 2) in launching a
"preventive war" to prevent China from catching up economically and
militarily. Or, if China decides to start the offensive against
Taiwan with a one-megaton nuclear burst 40 kilometers above the
center of the island. Or, if China and Russia decide to arm a number
of their short and medium range ballistic missiles and supersonic
cruise missiles with tactical nuclear warheads in defending
themselves against the U.S. and U.K. aircraft carrier battle groups.
Land-attack versions of these supersonic cruise missiles armed with
nuclear warheads carried by stealthy Chinese and Russian submarines
can also put American coastal cities at great risk to nuclear
devastation. Strategic planners must also consider these worst-case
possibilities.
Scenario Two: America versus a Medium Power
"In the Middle East and Southwest Asia, our overall objective is to
remain the predominant outside power in the region and preserve U.S.
and Western access to the region's oil." - Paul Wolfowitz "I
cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly
to become as strategically significant as the Caspian. But the oil
and gas there is worthless until it is moved. The only route which
makes both political and economic sense is through Afghanistan." ' -
' Dick Cheney in 1998 as Chief Executive of a major oil services
company History is replete with vivid examples where a much stronger
and larger force was defeated by a weaker and smaller force. The
French were defeated by Vietminh Guerrillas in Dien Bien Phu. The
Soviet Union forces, still a superpower at that time, were defeated
in Afghanistan. And another superpower, the United States, was
defeated by "ill-clad, ill-fed, and ill-armed" Vietcong guerrillas in
Vietnam.
Asymmetric Warfare
If the United States will push through its plan of world domination
in what is called the "Project for the New American Century", then it
should expect all the smaller and weaker countries that do not wish
to be pushed around to fight back using a method of fighting called
asymmetric warfare. Asymmetric warfare is a form of warfare that
allows the weak to fight and defeat a much stronger foe by "attacking
the enemy's weakness while avoiding his strength".
The United States, for instance, may possess the most sophisticated
weapons system on earth. They may have the most modern planes,
helicopters, ships, guns, precision-guided weapons, sophisticated
sensors, and command and control systems, but if they cannot see
their adversary, if they are fighting a shadowy and "invisible" enemy
(like what the American and British forces are now experiencing in
Iraq), such advanced and sophisticated weapons systems are rendered
useless.
In asymmetric warfare, most of the fighting will be conducted at the
team level. Thousands of agile and elusive teams consisting of 2 -5
members equipped with man-portable surface-to-air missiles, portable
anti-tank guided weapons, .50 cal sniper rifles, man-portable
mortars, anti-tank mines, anti-personnel mines, sea mines, C4
explosives (for making car bombs, booby-traps, and improvised
explosive devices or IEDs) riding in bicycles, motorcycles, tricycles
and fast boats will make the lives of any invading or occupying
forces extremely miserable and deadly.
These "invisible" agile teams merge with the population most of the
time and come out only when there is a vulnerable target to strike
at. Then, they disappear again into the shadows. They communicate
via runners bringing coded written messages, so there are no
electronic signals to track down. They operate semi-autonomously, so
there are no centers of gravity that can be targeted. And since they
are indigenous to the area and united with the local people, their
human intelligence (HUMINT) is far more superior to the hated foreign
invaders. They will also enjoy a tremendous advantage in
psychological operations (PSYOPS), for it is much easier to mobilize
the nationalist sentiments against a foreign occupier than for an
aggressor to justify occupation.
Asymmetric warfare may be compared to a fierce lion invading the
territory of a school of piranhas; or a king cobra encroaching into a
colony of fire ants. The lion may be the king of beasts, mighty and
strong but it is no match against the tiny piranhas in their own
territory. The sharp fangs and claws of the lion are rendered
useless. The same is true with the cobra's venom. The analogy
applies to the French in Dien Bien Phu, the Soviets in Afghanistan,
and the Americans in Vietnam and now in Iraq.
Asynchronous Warfare
Aside from asymmetric warfare, weak nations fighting the strong can
also avail of asynchronous warfare. If a strong nation invades or
occupies a weak one, the weak bides its time to strike back. And it
strikes at a time and place when and where the adversary least
expects and least prepared. An example is Iraq. The underground
resistance movement in Iraq may recruit Iraqi scientists or
sympathetic scientists of other nationalities to infiltrate the
United States (via the Mexican border, for instance) and manufacture
dirty bombs as well as chemical and biological weapons inside the
U.S. borders. Such weapons may be brought to Washington D.C. and
detonated in or near the U.S. Congress during the U.S. President's
State of the Union address, for example.
They can also hire a private plane, or buy one themselves, and use it
to spread biological or chemical weapons they have manufactured in-
country over New York or Washington D.C. They can mail letters
containing anthrax to key offices of vital services all over the U.S.
and paralyze utilities and other government functions nationwide. Or
they can smuggle, say, the components of a hundred portable
surface-to-air missiles, assemble them in the U.S., and employ them
simultaneously in all of the major airports in America. Or they can
employ those portable surface-to-air missiles to simultaneously
target American airlines taking off or landing in different
international airports all over the world. Some major powers may pass
on their research on RMA (revolution in military affairs) to the
Iraqi resistance movement to be tested inside the U.S. mainland.
These weapons include laser weapons, ultrahigh frequency weapons,
ultrasonic wave weapons, stealth weapons, high-powered microwave
weapons, and electromagnetic guns. They include miniature robot ants
that infiltrate computers, stay dormant, and then activate on signal
to destroy their hosts.
The Iraqi underground can also recruit hackers who can work inside
and/or outside the United States to hack the U.S. banking system,
financial system, stock exchange, airport tower control systems,
train control system, power supply system, water control system, dam
control system, ballistic missile system, C4ISR system, and other key
systems critical to the U.S. economy. At a given signal, assigned
hackers simultaneously do their thing. The U.S., which is considered
the most advanced country when it comes to Information Technology,
has become too dependent on computers and related high-tech equipment
that its inherent strength has, ironically, turned into its own
"Achilles heel". Here, we are talking only of Iraq. What if the U.S.
tries to impose its will and dominance on 5 or 10 other sovereign
nations? Can the U.S. hope to "fight and win" an asymmetric war
against smaller nations fighting against hegemony? Can America
afford or survive 10 Iraqs ... or 10 Vietnams? Can America win an
asymmetric war against an "invisible" army even in Iraq alone?
American Crossroad
As the sole remaining superpower in the world today, the United
States stands at a critical crossroad. One road leads to world
domination. Using its pre-eminent military war machine with no equal
in the world, it can strike at any perceived threat, change foreign
sovereign regimes at will, grab precious mineral resources anywhere
in the world, and control local economies with its hosts of
transnational corporations. It can also sabotage the economy of
up-coming rivals, or launch preventive wars to preempt prospective
competitors and try to defeat them militarily while they are still
weak compared to America.
Such a course of action is very tempting indeed, especially to
leaders with global ambitions of becoming "Lords of the Earth". But
such a road is full of risks and what is planned on paper, as what
was done in Iraq, may not turn out as planned. And such path will
necessarily ignite the outrage of most right-thinking people.
America will earn for itself the enmity and hatred of people all over
the world.
America had outlined its blueprint for world domination, by force if
necessary, in the following documents:
"National Security Strategy of the United States of America", September 2001
President George W. Bush's speech at the Graduation Ceremony at West
Point, June 1, 2002;
"Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for
the New Century", A Report of the Project for the New American
Century, September "Defense Planning Guidance" written by then
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz in Feb 18, 1992
In these documents, the U.S. outlined some of its new doctrines and
policies such as: preventive war, pre-emptive military actions,
unilateralism, regime change, acting as the world's constabulary or
"cavalry", establishment of military bases and spreading U.S. forces
all over the world, control of outer space and the global commons of
cyberspace, and control of the world's oil resources.
The alternate road, on the other hand, leads to world leadership. The
U.S. can choose to use its power, wealth, and influence to sincerely
do good for the people on this planet. It can lead in easing or
obliterating the debt burden of poor nations, or in promoting the
spread of quality education through distance learning in remote
villages of developing countries. It can focus in the fight against
poverty, or the fight against drugs, or the effort to save the
deteriorating environment of planet earth. It can lead the fight
against HIV/AIDS, or malaria, and other deadly diseases. The whole
world is waiting for the U.S. to lead in these important battles.
If the U.S. chooses to focus its huge resources on the latter, I am
confident that it will gain the hearts and minds of people all over
the world. Then it can be a true world leader. Then, it can maintain
its preeminent world status. By gaining the world's sympathy and
support, terrorism directed against Americans and the U.S. mainland
will be greatly minimized. The alternate road, in fact, is the key
to defeating the phenomenon of "terrorism" gripping the world today.
Let us pray that God or Allah will guide America as it decides what
road to take for the 21st century.
References
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Written by: Joe Messerli 05/05/2004
6. Balancing Ties by Wang Yi
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Knight, and Robert Leavitt January 1994 issue of Boston Review
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States Military Academy, West Point, New York
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Michael A. Weinstein, June 7, 2004
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Bangor Daily News
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Poon Kim, Ritsumeikan International Affairs Vol. 1, pp 57-87
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Bangkok, Thailand, Sept 1996
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Impact on the Multilateral Trading System by Jiangyu Wang, 2004
Singapore Year Book of International Law and Contributors
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Pillsbury, National Defense University Press, January 2000
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presence planned, Christine Spolar, Chicago Tribune, March 23, 2004
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Russian cruise missiles, Charles Smith, World Net Daily, June 6, 2000
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House, October 26, 2004
31. Caspian Sea Region: Reserves and Pipelines, Energy Information
Administration, July 2002
32. Central Asian Backlash against U.S. Franchised Revolutions by
Gahendra Singh, Paper No. 1449, March 7, 2005
33. Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign
Countries by Andrew Feichart, March 5, 2004
34. The Ties the Bind China, Russia and Iran by Jephraim
P.Gundzik, Asia Times Online, June 4, 2005
35. Military Exercise by Russia, China has message for U.S. by
Mark Magnier and Kim Murphy, Dawn the Internet Edition, August 19,
2005
36. Submarines: The Chinese Submarine Building Program, Sid
Travethan, Strategy Page, May 24, 2004
37. China-ASEAN Sign Pact for Biggest Free Trade Zone, Dawn-
Business, Nov 30, 2004
38. China, Russia Strengthening Strategic Alliance by Patrick
Goodenough, CNS News.com, March 6, 2000
39. China Luring Foreign Scholars to Make Its Universities Great
by Howard W. French, The New York Times, October 28, 2005
40. China's New Stealth Missiles Could Nuke U.S. Without Warning
by Charles R. Smith, World Net Daily. com, Nov 30, 1999
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Washington Times, Sept 25, 2001
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