From: G77 Date: Wed, 3 Nov 2004 19:25:04 EST Subject: Re: rkm: some thoughts To: •••@••.••• At 21:05 they stopped counting for half an hour to hack ALL the voting machines by modem and add 15% margin It took 20 minutes - all anchors of networks kept their mouth shut as good as possible. See the tape of CNN Larry King had a lot of difficulty with it ! Friends, Our tree of possible futures seems to have been trimmed down considerably. Kerry did not win nor is he contesting the vote. Either of those, if I had been forced to express an opinion, would have seemed more likely than an outright Bush victory. In fact we have every reason to suspect that this election has been stolen. We've seen many solid reports regarding disenfranchisement of voters and the unreliability of computer voting. And yet nothing significant was done to correct those known problems. In such a close election, only a few percent of selective votes need to be 'miscounted', or disallowed, in order to swing the electoral outcome. In a recent posting to newslog, "Stolen election?", we see one tentative study that shows a mysterious 5% bulge in Bush votes in precisely those states which used electronic voting. Everywhere else, according to the study, the exit polls match the outcomes. But in the electronic states the outcomes give Bush 5% more than the exit polls indicated. This is exactly the kind of result one would expect from systematic electronic vote tampering. (By the way, at the bottom is a list of recent postings to newslog.) But whether the election was stolen by election fraud, or enabled by the fundamentalist-fascist cult, the outcome is the same: the USA is now under the control of an overt fascist regime supported by an aggressive cult following. Before this election, we could think of the neocons as a one-time anomaly. They had bullied their way into the White House, they had made enemies in the conservative establishment, they had revealed that they were mad men -- and now we had the chance to vote them out. It would have all been a bad dream and it would be over. Not any more. It's now official: their approach has been approved by the people of America. We've seen the torture photos, we've seen the lies and the disaster in Iraq, we've seen the Patriot Act, we've seen taxpayer money being gobbled up by Halliburton, we see the economy collapsing, and yet -- Americans voted, officially, for more of the same. As Bob Dylan would put it, "Now is the time for your tears." The fascists now have a firm grip on power; their boldness can only increase; and they will claim a broad mandate for their agenda. In their first four years they have established a solid foundation in support of their future programs. They have turned Iraq into a forward military base whose stated purpose, in the PNAC agenda, is to facilitate further invasions, obtain control of petroleum resources, and help establish global US military (and economic) hegemony. The perceived failures in Bush's Iraq policy do not prevent this expansionist agenda from proceeding. Indeed a wider war, quite likely a nuclear one, would be a handy way out of the Iraq quagmire. In a shoot-em-up air war the US has an overwhelming advantage, and it makes for 'good television'. Much better for PR than images of roadside bombs. Stores will be filled with T-shirts that say "Nuke 'em!". I would be REALLY surprised if the neocons do not force a confrontation with Iran and North Korea within the next two years, and perhaps much sooner. They've established the foundation for their PNAC agenda, they've gotten their mandate, and it would be quite extraordinary if they did not proceed on to the next logical steps... the rest of the 'axis of evil'. The saber-rattling around Iran has already begun, and Israel now has the necessary bombs to launch the initial attack. Now that Bush has won, I imagine the countdown has begun for the attack. Presumably some re-deployments of forces will be needed, and of course there will be the usual demonization campaign in the media against Iran and it's leaders. There will also be the question of relations with the EU and Britain. There are many possibilities there, a spectrum all the way from arrogant-US-unilateralism across to increased-EU-support-for-imperialism. I don't know how that will pan out, but the neocons will probably want to establish those choices prior to entering a new attack theater. As we watch these developments, we will be seeing the progress of the countdown. What we need to be aware of -- as the neocons, Israelis, Russians, and Chinese clearly understand -- is that expanded military confrontations in the Middle East and in Asia would be very likely to lead to escalation. Both North Korea and Iran are reported to have advanced cruise missile systems (the sunburn) which is able to reliably deliver nuclear warheads to urban targets and which can take out a modern US aircraft carrier. If a nuke were to take out Tel Aviv, or Seoul, or a US carrier, those would provide an 'incident' that would be used to justify whatever escalation plans the neocons might have in mind. Certainly such an incident would enable nuclear weapons to be included in the American response. 20 August 2004 Iran might launch pre-emptive strikes to protect its nuclear facilities if they are threatened, Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani said in remarks broadcast on 20 August 2004. "We won't sit with our hands tied and wait until someone does something to us," Shamkhani told Arabic channel Al Jazeera when asked what Iran would do if the United States or Israel attacked its atomic facilities. "Some military leaders in Iran are convinced that the pre-emptive measures that America is talking about are not their right alone," he added in Persian. "Any strike on our nuclear facilities will be regarded as a strike on Iran and we will respond with all our might." This inherent potential for escalation becomes an additional destabilizing element in the scenario. If everyone is expecting escalation, then everyone has an incentive to take preemptive action, if they feel they will eventually be forced to get involved and that waiting would put them at a strategic disadvantage. Hence Iran has already talked about taking action first, although in that case I can see no advantage for them in such a course. China and Russia both know that their turn on the chopping block will come eventually. The PNAC agenda clearly calls for US hegemony in all regions, and as long as China and Russia continue to exist as independent nuclear powers that agenda cannot be fulfilled. The US has been busily building advance military bases in South Asia, to some extent 'surrounding' Russia and China. Bush has been rushing the deployment of a missile defense system, which is one of the system components you'd want in place, however functional, prior to a nuclear exchange. A massive US Navy exercise was carried out very recently in the seas around China, a provocative show of force in China's backyard. When the neocons make their moves on Iran and North Korea they will be playing with fire, and they know it. They'll need to be on hair-trigger red alert, just in case, and that fact itself will further destabilize the situation. And even though it would mean suicide for them, I strongly suspect that the leadership in North Korea and Iran (as indicated above) would respond to any attack with their most powerful weapons systems. These might be nuclear or biological. Even with conventional explosives, a sunburn can take out a carrier. Israel is a further destabilizing influence, and a very dangerous one. To some extent they can be seen as the attack dogs of the neocon program, able to take actions allegedly 'on their own', which might be officially 'disavowed' by the White House. (Plausible deniability.) But the Israeli leadership cannot be trusted to be team players, not even by the neocons. "Trust only in ourselves and see to our own defense" is their de facto motto. They could take out the Iranian nuclear facilities on their own initiative, and what could Washington do about it? Even if the attack was unauthorized, Bush would have no choice but to come the aid of ally Israel, presuming that the Iranians responded with damaging effect. And regardless of how the fight with Iran begins, Israel might have its own plans about accelerating the escalation scenario. They are a scary bunch. They, like the neocons, seem to believe in Revelations (apocalypse now). None of this is news to the political and military leadership of Russia and China. Indeed, China and the US have been engaged for some time in an arms race, not that the mass media seems to have noticed. The US is going for high-tech, satellite-supported, control-of-theater, first-strike capability, while China is going for a focused strategic defensive capability. China can't win a nuclear war with the US, but they want to be able to inflict enough damage to deter an attack. Russia's situation vis a vis the US is more or less the same as China's, except that Russia has a more comprehensive strategic capability. Neither power has any way of estimating the neocon's willingness to accept casualties. China seems to think that taking out a carrier task force would deter an attack. If so, they don't understand the Pearl Harbor syndrome. In the light of current missile technology, carrier task forces are now strategically out date, as were the battle ships left in port when the Japanese attacked. The neocons would be happy to sacrifice a carrier task force with its crew -- if that gave them the green light for an all out attack on a major power. That's the kind of people we're dealing with, the kind who are in charge of this world of ours. They are the real terrorists, and they are every bit as evil as those who blow up restaurants, or those who led the Third Reich. All of these players will be on high alert when the neocons take their next step in their drive for hegemony, a step perhaps to be initiated by unilateral Israeli action. The confrontation, whether it escalates more widely or not, will be seen by all players as a move on the bigger chess board. If the US is allowed to clobber and occupy Iran, it will have a formidable position on the doorstep of Central Asia, and it will be able to maintain the petrodollar. If the US is allowed to clobber and occupy North Korea, then the handwriting is on the wall for China. Will Russia and China be yielding decisive advantages to the US by permitting such further expansionism? They protested the invasion of Iraq, but they took no strong steps to prevent it. Do they perhaps see themselves as facing an appeasement scenario? Might they be drawing a line in the sand, as did Britain and France in the case of Poland in 1939? Does it ever pay to appease a fascist aggressor who has published a Mein Kampf / PNAC agenda? And, to bring in one more possible future, I still refuse to put to rest the possibility of a conservative coup in the USA. It seems less likely now, with the election being uncontested and all. But in light of the danger of all-out nuclear war, the continued unpopularity of the neocons in some elite circles, and with readily available evidence on which to indict the neocons for treason and crimes against humanity, it is not inconceivable that some faction in the Pentagon might yet choose to save all of our asses. Military tribunals, tanks in Washington, and the whole nine yards. Although our tree of possible futures has been seriously trimmed by the recent election, it seems that we are still on the cusp of a major chaos point. It is inconceivable that the neocons will fail to continue their expansionist agenda. Perhaps they can get by with it one more time in Iran, as they did in Iraq. Perhaps not. Many forces are at work and the situation is of life-and-death importance to the various players. The next few years, or less, will be highly volatile. More volatile even than I've indicated so far. There is also economics to consider. I wrote in the previous essay about global stagnation, and the inevitable economic-depression conditions to be experienced in the West. Europe is lagging behind in this race to the bottom, but Brussels is keeping up relentless pressure to catch up. Our attention is currently on the neocons, but meanwhile the neoliberals have been continuing their slash and burn economic project. Bush has turned Clinton's budget surplus into the greatest deficit the world has ever known. With the latest tax cuts, it is impossible to describe the USA as being in any real sense solvent. We're in debt up to our eyeballs, and we have no way of even staying even. We're sinking into debt quicksand. And there's nothing accidental about it. Bush is finishing the job that Reagan started: the intentional dismantlement of the US economy. Once again, the US is leading the way to the neoliberal bottom -- the privatized state. ("This war is brought to you by Carlyle-Halliburton, your friendly local war corps.") In the third world, as has been described in many of our postings, many nations are totally controlled by the IMF by means of debt. The nations simply can't operate without new funding from the IMF, and in return they are forced to accept comprehensive and suicidal economic programs (structural adjustments) as dictated by the IMF. Bush is pushing the US into that same position. The neocons will only be able to pursue their programs by taking on new debt. In a real sense, the US government is on the verge of going into receivership by those who hold the debt -- which is basically the big international banks and financiers. As a condition of extending more credit, conditions can be demanded. Alan Greenspan will explain to us the 'market realities', and tell us why we can't afford health care, or social security, or education, or whatever. The fact of debt provides a mechanism by which austerity programs can be implemented with minimal political damage. "We don't want to do this to you, we simply have no choice." The Republicans in Congress will have few qualms about bowing down in this way to the princes of wealth, and signing over to them whatever national sovereignty yet remains. At a macro level, this economic transaction can be characterized as a wealth transfer from the US taxpayer, present and future, to large banks and financiers. For generations to come, a major percentage of the earnings of every American will be siphoned off to subsidize the capitalist elite in the name of 'debt repayment'. We'll pay much more in this way than we ever would have paid in taxes to support the programs that were instead financed by borrowing. You know what happens when you put everything on your VISA card and let the interest mount up. Meanwhile the expenditures which might have gone to funding those programs are instead being siphoned off to corporate contractors, particularly the neocon crony companies. We're witnessing a wholesale robbery from current and future generations. As Kerry supporters recover from their shock and awe at the election results, they will begin to realize that four years under a radical and emboldened leadership is going to be a very long time. They won't be thinking any longer about electoral politics, any more than you would think about next Christmas on December 26. Liberals, progressives, and activists will soon realize that they are under siege. Not only in the USA but throughout Europe. The anti-war, anti-globalization, and environmental activists will realize that the Final Days are near. Either we do something now, or resign ourselves to a fully regimented, 1984-ish, third-reichish millennium. And in the background will be brewing the grapes of wrath -- economic collapse. Why some of the most economically devastated communities support Bush is a mystery I'll never understand, but sooner or later the grassroots left and right are going to realize they are on the same side. "There is no left and right, only up and down. All the fat cats up there having a good time, while the rest of us are down here struggling to survive." (Carolyn Chute). Besides the volatility of the military situation, there is then also a volatility threatened by potential civil unrest. The neocons are well aware of both domains of volatility, and in honor of the domestic domain we have the Patriot Act and Homeland Security, as well as FEMA. The fact is that we don't have any rights anymore. Consider this: http://context.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/10/22/120.html Now we know, from their own words, that the Bush Regime is a cult -- a cult whose god is Power, whose adherents believe that they alone control reality, that indeed they create the world anew with each act of their iron will. ...You think this is an exaggeration? Then heed the words of the White House itself: a "senior adviser" to the president, who, as The New York Times reports, explained the cult to author Ron Suskind in the heady pre-war days of 2002. First, the top Bush insider mocked the journalist and all those "in what we call the reality-based community," i.e., people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." Suskind's attempt to defend the principles of reason and enlightenment cut no ice with the Bush-man. "That's not the way the world really works anymore. We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality," he said. "And while you're studying that reality, we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." Yes indeed, this is the time for your tears. But then, on the other hand, it always seems to be darkest and coldest before the dawn. Tears of despair, if shared, can become tears of hope. The Bush victory is a slap in the face of humanity, and it could be a slap that awakens. We Western activists need to take a deep breath, and envision commitment for the long haul. We can take heart from our brothers and sisters in Venezuela, Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Cuba, who are finding ways to declare their sovereignty and see to their own survival in the face of corporate globalization and the PNAC agenda. The vast majority of the people of the world, including the Western middle classes, are being abandoned by global capitalism. Those who actually benefit from this system are an ever-shrinking minority of top corporate executives, some technical functionaries, and our wealthy ruling elites. How small will that circle need to become before it can no longer hold us in subservience? When will the global grassroots wake up to the fact that we are being hoodwinked, swindled, and enslaved? When will we realize that we are the people and we are unstoppable? As our arrogant neocon apologist claimed above, "when we act, we create our own reality". He is right. If you have the means and the guts, you can create reality. That's what Werner Erhard meant by being "at cause" instead of "at effect". The fascist regime has laid down the gauntlet. They are aiming to create a nightmare reality, wherein they hope to preserve some kind of walled community for themselves, a kind of final Green Zone. For the rest of us, the time has come to do or die. Will we awaken to the danger in time? Will we realize that we are all in this together? Will we find our common strength? At this chaotic cusp, the range of possible futures is great indeed. The only thing for sure is that the old days are gone. We didn't know it at the time, but that was as good as it was ever going to get -- those were the 'good old days'. But as we face the uncertain future we need not be at the mercy of chaos and chance. Indeed we cannot be. We are one of the potential actors in the drama, and we have a responsibility to our species to take up our burden and play the role that history demands of us. best regards, rkm http://cyberjournal.org newslog list archives (recent): http://cyberjournal.org/cj/show_archives/?lists=newslog 30 Oct 2004 - Karl Rove: America's Mullah 30 Oct 2004 - Memories of Bush at Harvard Business School 30 Oct 2004 - Pat Buchanan on Bush 31 Oct 2004 - BBC report Sparks Florida Vote Storm 31 Oct 2004 - MER: Iran Next - Part 1 01 Nov 2004 - rkm: some thoughts 01 Nov 2004 - BREAKING: Judge: Ohio 'Poll Challengers' Unconstitutional 01 Nov 2004 - Urgent warning for US voters using voting machines 02 Nov 2004 - "One Day Left", by Michael Moore 02 Nov 2004 - Bush's EPA Uses Kids as Guinea Pigs 02 Nov 2004 - Paul Krugman: The Emperor is naked 02 Nov 2004 - Arundhati Roy: elections, global power, empire, lies and resistance 02 Nov 2004 - Update: G.O.P. Can Challenge Voters at Ohio Polls 03 Nov 2004 - rkm: some thoughts 04 Nov 2004 - Sidney Blumenthal: Bush Unbound 04 Nov 2004 - Stolen election? 04 Nov 2004 - MER: Iran Next - Part 2