RITA SLOWING AND TURNING MORE EASTWARD

2005-09-23

Richard Moore

--------------------------------------------------------
From: "Westaway" <•••@••.•••>
To: "Westaway" <•••@••.•••>
Subject: RITA SLOWING AND TURNING MORE EASTWARD
Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2005 09:41:21 -0700

I suppose this hurricane is driving people nuts.  The oil
speculators are trying to figure out if it's goinng to affect
oil production.  New Orleans is worried about more rain which
it's probably going to get.  And Galveston and Houston are in
a frenzy as official tracking predictions have them in Rita's
crosshairs.  Annd yet there seems to be something strange
happening.

Rita is slowing down, but not only that.  Rita seems to be
turning more eastward to defy the official tracking laid out
by the National Hurricane Center predictors.  Will it maintain
this more northwesterly track?  Who knows.  But if it does, it
could go east of Galveston and more toward Port Arthur,
population about 58,000, a major oil refining city.  Actually,
Port Arthur is a huge oil refining complex with a city sort of
built on its edge. It's the classic "mill town" or in this
case, a "oil refinery' town.  It's like a city built on the
fringes of a huge oil refinery that seems to stretch for
miles.  I don't know what its capacity is, but when we passed
through it in the late 80s it was huge and it was like driving
through hell.

As you can see from the bulletin below, Rita has weakened a
bit, but is still enormously powerful.  It's hard to predict
where it will land because on the tracking map there are no
state borders.  So without going to a hard copy of a map of
the gulf area, one just has to sort of guess.

So that's it for now.  I leave you some reference urls.

- Don.

Check out the tracking map at
http://hurricane.terrapin.com/ATL-18A/ctrack.html

Check out the satellite photo of Rita at
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/maps-satellite.asp?a=a&anim=LOOP&type=ei&large=0&region=GUL

Check out the map of Texas at
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.sitesatlas.com/Maps/Maps/usatx1.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.sitesatlas.com/Maps/Maps/TX1.htm&h=767&w=800&sz=87&tbnid=gw4CQKDxMxAJ:&tbnh=136&tbnw=142&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dmap%2Btexas%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D&oi=imagesr&start=3

Check out the map of Louisiana at
http://travel.yahoo.com/p-travelguide-577720-map_of_louisiana-i


BULLETIN
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2005

...RITA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...

...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM NORTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH
OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...AND FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD
TO THE RIO GRANDE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING
POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST OR ABOUT 460
MILES...740 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 445
MILES...715 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 165 MPH...270
KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140
KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS
IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
15 INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RITA PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS. BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.4 N... 88.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...165 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 907 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
-- 

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Richard Moore (rkm)
Wexford, Ireland
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