-------------------------------------------------------- http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4416498.stm Blair puts leadership on the line Analysis By Nick Assinder Political Correspondent, BBC News website Tony Blair continues to insist his anti-terror proposals are not a test of his leadership - but by refusing to give way he appears to have deliberately chosen to place his authority firmly on the line. If he fails in his attempt to win over the 90-day detention period for suspects - and even if Janet Anderson's 60-day fallback plan is accepted - he will have handed his critics a major victory. And that could quickly intensify all the current talk over his future, strengthening those demanding he quit sooner rather than later. Tory support hopes The prime minister's surprise refusal to offer a widely-expected compromise on the period of detention came after he and Home Secretary Charles Clarke met backbench Labour MPs in the Commons. So the prime minister's hard line suggests he believes that the concessions already made - a sunset clause and judicial oversight - will be enough to reassure a sufficient number of his backbench rebels to avert defeat. Governments can seldom go wrong with the electorate by appearing tough on law and order Nick Assinder He may also believe that some Tory MPs, fearful they might be portrayed as soft on terror, will now defy their leadership and either abstain or even back the government. That is a tactic he has ruthlessly deployed, irrespective of the arguments for and against his proposals, challenging his own rebels to decide whose side they are on - his and the police's or the Tories And he already feels certain he has the public on his side - a fact apparently supported by recent surveys. But the early signs are that he is still facing a knife edge vote when the proposals are put before MPs on Wednesday. There may be some Tories like Ann Widdecombe who now believe the sunset clause is enough to answer her fears and stop her voting against the government. Others on all sides, however, believe they have been led up the garden path with pledges of forthcoming concessions being abandoned after ministers used the time that bought to lean on rebels. Until Monday night few, if any, in Westminster believed there was any chance the prime minister would succeed in winning the 90-day proposal after his 66 majority was reduced to just one on a related anti-terror vote. And despite a concerted campaign by ministers, whips and police chiefs to hammer home the need for the new power, it appeared he was certain to be defeated. Difficult times It is possible that Mr Blair believes the Commons arithmetic has shifted dramatically over the past couple of days. It may also be that, at one of the most difficult times for his premiership, he is determined to stand and fight over an issue on which he feels absolutely certain and on which he believes he has public support. After all, governments can seldom go wrong with the electorate by appearing tough on law and order. And he would probably rather be having a knock down fight over this issue than some of the other key policies such as education, welfare and pensions on which he is also facing serious internal opposition. If he wins the terror battle, it may well enhance his authority and allow him to press ahead with those other controversial reforms while his rebels might hesitate to challenge him again. The prime minister gave an indication of his determination during his monthly press conference a few hours before meeting his backbenchers. He said his determination to push through the 90 day detention proposal was "absolutely undiminished". He insisted it was right thing to do and suggested that opposing it would compromise national security. It doesn't get much stronger than that. Yet he also insisted it was not about his authority or a matter of confidence in his leadership and that to make it such would only prove a distraction from the issue at hand. That may be the case - but by taking the uncompromising stand he has now adopted he may ensure that that is the outcome of this fierce battle. Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/uk_politics/4416498.stm Published: 2005/11/08 09:53:33 GMT © BBC MMV -------------------------------------------------------- http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4419970.stm Blair facing crunch terror vote Chancellor Gordon Brown and Foreign Secretary Jack Straw have cut short high level foreign trips as Tony Blair fights to avoid defeat on terror plans. MPs will vote on plans to allow police to hold terror suspects for 90 days without charge at about 1800 GMT. The Tories, Lib Dems and enough Labour MPs oppose the plans to mean the result is seen as being on a knife-edge. Chancellor Mr Brown, called back within minutes of arriving in Israel, said he wanted to maximise Labour's vote. I think it's important that I talk to my colleagues so that we maximise our vote Chancellor Gordon Brown Mr Brown was due to meet Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as the head of a joint G8 and European Union initiative to help regenerate the economy in the region. But after receiving messages from the government's chief whip when he arrived in Israel, he is now flying home. Tory rebellion? Mr Brown is thought to have arranged for an opposition MP to abstain so he did not need to need to return to vote himself. But he said he wanted to try to persuade backbench colleagues to back the 90-day detention plans - which was originally proposed by police chiefs. Mr Brown told BBC News: "It's important that I talk to my colleagues so that we maximise our vote, I think it's important that people know that we all take the issues of national security as seriously as we do." VOTE TIMETABLE 1200 GMT : Tony Blair faces prime minister's questions 1240 : Debate on report stage of Terrorism Bill begins About 1800 : Key detention vote expected The chancellor said he was disappointed cross-party talks had failed to produce a consensus. Asked if the episode showed Mr Blair's authority was faltering, he replied: "No, I don't think so at all. These are issues that people feel strongly about." Mr Brown stressed he would still be able to complete most of his trip in the Middle East. He will now meet Palestinian and Israeli finance ministers on Thursday. No compromise Meanwhile the foreign secretary is flying back early from Moscow. where he will attend EU-Russia talks, but miss some other planned meetings by "returning a little early". The prime minister, who has said he will step down before the election due by 2010, is seen as having staked much of his authority on the outcome of the vote. He has refused to compromise on the plan to extend the time limit for detaining terrorism suspects without charge from 14 days to 90 days. COMMONS ARITHMETIC Labour's majority: 66 Total Labour MPs: 354 Tory MPs: 196 Lib Dem MPs: 62 Scottish/Welsh nationalists: 9 Democratic Unionists: 9 Other voting MPs: 7 There is a fallback position of holding a vote on an amendment proposing a 60-day limit. One Labour MP has described the atmosphere at Westminster in the run-up to the vote as "ferocious". The Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour rebels are expected to back Labour backbencher David Winnick's proposal that suspects be held for a maximum 28 days without charge. Home Secretary Charles Clarke last week avoided a vote - and possible defeat - on the 90-day proposal by promising further discussion. But ministers are now sticking by their original plan, seeking to win over Labour rebels and also some Tory MPs. Mr Clarke says he has made substantial concessions, including the promise of a "sunset clause", meaning the new law would expire in a year's time unless MPs approve it again. A High Court judge will also have to agree an extension of detention every seven days. On Tuesday, the UK's most senior police chief warned of "chilling" evidence of new terrorist plots against the UK as he urged MPs to lend their support to the government's proposal. Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Ian Blair said the police were "not in an auction" over the plan. But they believed 90 days was the right length of time needed because of the complexity and mass of evidence in terrorism cases. Civil liberties groups say the plan is essentially internment and would see people locked up for the equivalent of a six months prison sentence. Story from BBC NEWS: http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/uk_politics/4419970.stm Published: 2005/11/09 09:17:32 GMT © BBC MMV -- -------------------------------------------------------- http://cyberjournal.org "Apocalypse Now and the Brave New World" http://www.cyberjournal.org/cj/rkm/Apocalypse_and_NWO.html Posting archives: http://cyberjournal.org/cj/show_archives/?date=01Jan2006&batch=25&lists=newslog Subscribe to low-traffic list: •••@••.••• ___________________________________________ In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.
