Bcc: Peter Meyer
Date: 15 December 2009 03:50:35 GMTTo: •••@••.•••Subject: re-5: global warming – The official NOAA ice core data
Following your investigation, “I went to the official NOAA government site, and
downloaded the raw data from the ice cores into Excel. I used Excel’s charting
feature, and compared it to” your graphs, and got the same results. Many thanks
for this interesting presentation.
It certainly shows that the steep rise in temperature between about 1830 CE and
about 1905 CE (the latest data from the ice cores) is far less than the steep
rise which occurred 800-1000 CE at the start of the medieval warm period,
indicating that we have nothing to worry about.
My only reservation would be that the ice core data does not go beyond 1905, but
even if that trend continued to 2000 it would still not be larger than the
However, the AGM proponents could argue that even though, in the medieval warm
period, the temperature peaked at around 1030 CE and then went into major
decline until 1257, there is no guarantee that the current warming phase will
peak any time soon, and might continue upward. It might, but is there any
evidence that it will? A case would have to be made that greenhouse gases
released into the atmosphere since 1830 are the cause of the current warming
phase and so (if they remain at current levels) will continue to push the
temperature upward with no end in sight. This, I think, is the essential point
of dispute, namely, whether the current warming phase can be explained in this
way. But since the warming phase 800-1000 was not due to the presence of
greenhouse cases, such an explanation is dubious. Until climatologists can
explain the 800-1000 warming phase I suspect we can’t predict global temperature
even in the near future.
Date: 15 December 2009 11:01:50 GMTTo: •••@••.•••Subject: Re: global warming
Further to my previous message, it could be objected that the data for the last
50K years prior to 1900AD are just for one spot in central Greenland, and
evidence is needed that this temperature record can be extrapolated worldwide.
However, my main point remains, that climatologists (correct me if I am
mistaken) cannot explain the much larger warming phase at the start of the
medieval warm period, so cannot claim that the current warming must be due to
the effects of greenhouse gases. They could, however, deny that there was such a
much larger warming phase, but AFAIK the occurrence of the MWP has been
ABSTRACT: Greenland ice-core records provide an exceptionally clear picture of many aspects of abrupt climate changes, and particularly of those associated with the Younger Dryas event, as reviewed here. Well-preserved annual layers can be counted confidently, with only 1% errors for the age of the end of the Younger Dryas 11,500 years before present. Ice-flow corrections allow reconstruction of snow accumulation rates over tens of thousands of years with little additional uncertainty. Glaciochemical and particulate data record atmospheric-loading changes with little uncertainty introduced by changes in snow accumulation. Confident paleothermometry is provided by site-specific calibrations using ice-isotopic ratios, borehole temperatures, and gas-isotopic ratios. Near-simultaneous changes in ice-core paleoclimatic indicators of local, regional, and more-widespread climate conditions demonstrate that much of the Earth experienced abrupt climate changes synchronous with Greenland within thirty years or less. Post-Younger Dryas changes have not duplicated the size, extent and rapidity of these paleoclimatic changes.