The United States now faces mounting resistance from all
corners of the earth. Russia, China, and the Central Asian
countries have joined together in the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) to fend off US-NATO influence in the
region. And in Latin America, an alliance of leftist
governments has formed (Mercosur) under the leadership of
Hugo Chavez. Africa still remains politically fragmented and
open to western exploitation, although ham-fisted
interventions in Somalia, Nigeria and Sudan suggest that the
empire will face escalating resistance there as well.
Original source URL:
http://www.axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_24086.shtml
From AxisofLogic.com
WORLD
Global Realignment and the Decline of the Superpower
By MIKE WHITNEY
Mar 11, 2007, 16:54
The United States has been defeated in Iraq. That doesn¹t mean that there¹ll be
a troop withdrawal anytime soon, but it does mean that there¹s no chance of
achieving the mission¹s political objectives. Iraq will not be a democracy,
reconstruction will be minimal, and the security situation will continue to
deteriorate into the foreseeable future.
The real goals of the invasion are equally unachievable. While the US has
established a number of military bases at the heart of the world¹s
energy-center; oil output has dwindled to 1.6 million barrels per day, nearly
half of post-war production. More importantly, the administration has no clear
strategy for protecting pipelines, oil tankers and major facilities. Oil
production will be spotty for years to come even if security improves. This will
have grave effects on oil futures; triggering erratic spikes in prices and
roiling the world energy markets. If the contagion spreads to the other Gulf
States, as many political analysts now expect, many of the world¹s oil-dependent
countries will go through an agonizing cycle of recession/depression.
America¹s failure in Iraq is not merely a defeat for the Bush administration. It
is also a defeat for the "unipolar-model" of world order. Iraq proves that that
the superpower model cannot provide the stability, security or guarantee of
human rights that are essential for garnering the support of the 6 billion
people who now occupy the planet. The mushrooming of armed groups in Iraq,
Afghanistan and, now, Somalia foreshadows a broader and more violent
confrontation between the over-stretched American legions and their increasingly
adaptable and lethal enemies. Resistance to the imperial order is on the rise
everywhere.
The United States does not have the resources or the public support to prevail
in such a conflict. Nor does it have the moral authority to persuade the world
of the merit of its cause. The Bush administration¹s extra-legal actions have
galvanized the majority of people against the United States. America has become
a threat to the very human rights and civil liberties with which it used to be
identified. There¹s little popular support for imprisoning enemies without
charges, for torturing suspects with impunity, for kidnapping people off the
streets of foreign capitals, or for invading unarmed sovereign nations without
the approval of the United Nations. These are fundamental violations to
international law as well as commonly held principles of human decency.
The Bush administration defends its illegal activities as an essential part of
the new world order; a model of global governance which allows Washington to
police the world according to its own discretion. The vast majority of people
have rejected this model and polls clearly indicate declining support for US
policies nearly everywhere. As former Jimmy Carter National Security Advisor,
Zbigniew Brzezinski noted:
"American power may be greater in 2006 than in 1991, (but) the country¹s
capacity to mobilize, inspire, point in a shared direction and thus shape global
realities has significantly declined. Fifteen years after its coronation as
global leader, America is becoming a fearful and lonely democracy in a
politically antagonistic world."
"
The United States is a nation in a state of irreversible decline; its
foundational principles have been abandoned and its center of political power is
a moral swamp. The Bush presidency represents the ethical low point in American
history.
The U.S. now faces a decades-long struggle which will engulf the Middle East and
Central Asia leading to the steady and predictable erosion of America¹s
military, political and economic power.
This is not the "new century" that Bush and his fellows envisioned.
There are still dead-enders within the Bush administration who believe that we
are winning the war. Vice President Dick Cheney has celebrated the "enormous
success" of the Iraqi occupation, but he finds himself increasingly isolated in
his views. Reasonable people agree that the war has been a strategic and moral
catastrophe. The US has paid a heavy price for its recklessness; losing over
3,000 servicemen while seriously undermining its standing in the world. A small
cadre of Iraqi guerillas has demonstrated that it can frustrate the efforts of
best-equipped, best-trained, high-tech military in the world. They have made
Iraq an ungovernable quagmire which, by the standards of asymmetrical warfare,
is the very definition of success.
But what if Bush¹s plans had succeeded? What if his dark vision of "victory" had
been realized and the US was able to subjugate the Iraqi people, control their
resources, and create an "Arab façade" through which the administration could
carry out its policies?
Is there any doubt that Bush would quickly march on Tehran and Damascus? Is
there any doubt that Guantanamo and other CIA "black sites" around the world
would increase in number and size? Is there any doubt that global warming, peak
oil, nuclear non proliferation, poverty, hunger and AIDS would continue to be
brushed aside by Washington¹s corporatists and banking elites?
Is there any doubt that success in Iraq would further strengthen a tyrannical
system that limits the decision-making on all the issues of global importance,
even the very survival of the planet, to a small fraternity of well-heeled
plutocrats and gangsters?
The "new world order" promises despotism not democracy.
Many people believe that America has undergone a silent coup and has been taken
over by a cabal of political fantasists and war-mongers. But this is only
partially true. The US has a long history of covert activity, black-ops, and
other clear violations to international law. Perhaps, we are reluctant to accept
the truth because it¹s easier to stick our heads in the sand and let the
marauding continue.
The truth is there¹s a straight line from the founding of this country to the
killing fields of Baghdad. That line may be interrupted by periods of
enlightenment and peace, but it is still an unbroken stripe from the Continental
Congress to Abu Ghraib, from Bunker Hill to Falluja, from Valley Forge to
Guantanamo Bay. It all grows from the same root.
The United States now faces mounting resistance from all corners of the earth.
Russia, China, and the Central Asian countries have joined together in the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to fend off US-NATO influence in the
region. And in Latin America, an alliance of leftist governments has formed
(Mercosur) under the leadership of Hugo Chavez. Africa still remains politically
fragmented and open to western exploitation, although ham-fisted interventions
in Somalia, Nigeria and Sudan suggest that the empire will face escalating
resistance there as well.
These new coalitions are an indication of the massive geopolitical changes that
are already underway. The world is realigning in reaction to Washington¹s
aggression. We can expect to see these groups continue to strengthen as the
administration pursues its resource war through force of arms. That means that
the "old order"--the United Nations, NATO and the transatlantic Alliance--will
come under greater and greater strain until relations are eventually cut off.
The UN has already become irrelevant through its blind support of US policy in
the Middle East. Its silence during Israel¹s destructive rampage through
Lebanon, as well as its failure to acknowledge Iran¹s "inalienable rights" under
the terms of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has exposed the UN as a
"rubber stamp" for US-Israeli belligerence. An attack on Iran will be the end of
the UN, an institution that held great promise for the world, but now merely
provides cover for an elite-western agenda. On balance, the UN facilitates more
wars than it stops. It won¹t be missed.
Afghanistan holds the key for understanding what¹s in store for the EU, NATO and
the transatlantic Alliance. There is no possibility of success in Afghanistan.
If the men who planned the invasion had a grasp of the country¹s history they
would have known how the war would progress. They would have realized that
Afghanis traditionally take their time to fight back; (Eric Margolis predicted
that the real war would not take place until 4 to5 years after the initial
invasion) measuring the strength of their enemy and garnering greater public
support. Then they proceed with deliberate steps to rid their country of the
invaders. These are fiercely nationalistic and independent people who have
fought occupation before and know what it takes to win.
We are mistaken to think that the war in Afghanistan is merely a Taliban (or
worse still) "terrorist" insurgency. The present conflict represents a general
uprising of Pushtun nationals who seek to end foreign occupation. They know
first-hand that US-NATO policy has strengthened the warlords, expanded the drug
trade, reduced security, and increased terrorism. According to the Senlis
Council Report, the occupation has triggered "a humanitarian crisis of
starvation and povertyŠ US policies in Afghanistan have re-created a safe-haven
for terrorism that the 2001 invasion aimed to destroy."
The Afghan armed resistance is resourceful and intractable and has a growing
number of recruits to swell its ranks. Eventually, they will prevail. It¹s their
country and they¹ll be there long after we¹ve gone.
An America defeat in Afghanistan could be the straw that breaks NATO¹s back. The
administrations¹ global schema depends heavily on support from Europe;
persuading the predominantly white, western nations to join the battle and
secure pipeline corridors and landlocked energy supplies throughout Central
Asia. Failure in Afghanistan would send tremors through Europe¹s political
landscape and give rise to a generation of anti-American politicians who will
seek to dissolve relations between the two traditional allies. But a breakup
seems inevitable. After all, Europe has no imperial aspirations and its
economies are thriving. They don¹t need to invade and occupy countries to get
access to vital resources. They can simply buy them on the open market.
As Europeans begin to see that their national interests are better served
through dialogue and friendship, (with suppliers of resources in Central Asia
and Russia) then the ties that bind Europe to America will loosen and the
continents will drift further apart.
The end of NATO is the end of America as a global power. The present adventurism
is not sustainable "unilaterally" and without the fig-leaf of UN cover. America
needs Europe, but the chasm between the two is progressively growing.
It is impossible to predict the future with any degree of certainty, but the
appearance of these coalitions strongly suggests a new world order is emerging.
It is not the one, however, that Bush and the neoconservatives anticipated.
America¹s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan will continue to prevent it from
addressing brush-fires in Latin America and Russia, further strengthening US
rivals and precipitating macroeconomic changes that could crush the American
middle class. The likelihood of a major economic retrenchment has never been
greater as the administrations¹ reckless defense spending, lavish tax cuts, and
trade deficit have set the stage for the US dollar to be dethroned as the
world¹s "reserve currency". The three pillars of American imperial
power--political, economic and military--rest on the crumbling foundation of the
US greenback. If the dollar falls, as many currency traders now expect, then
foreign (baskets of) currencies will rise, and America will slip into a deep
recession/depression.
America¹s military and economic unraveling is likely to take a decade or more
depending on the situation in Iraq. If the Bush administration is able to exert
control over Middle East oil, then the dollar will continue to be linked to
vital resources and American supremacy will persist. If, however, conditions on
the ground deteriorate, then Central Banks around the world will decrease their
dollar holdings, Americans will face hyper-inflation at home, and the US will
lose its grip on the global economic system. The Bush administration must,
therefore, ensure that oil continues to be denominated in USDs and that the
world economy remains in the hands of western elites, banking giants and
corporatists.
The chances for success in Iraq are gradually diminishing. The US has shown that
it is incapable of establishing security, providing basic social services, or
keeping the peace. The guerilla war continues to intensify while the
over-extended US military has been pushed to the breaking point. We expect the
occupation of Iraq to be untenable within 5 years if present trends continue.
America¹s military and economic unraveling will undoubtedly be painful, but it
may generate greater parity among the nations, which would be a positive
development. The superpower model has been an abysmal failure. It has wreaked
havoc on civil liberties at home and spread war and instability across the
world. The present system needs a major shakeup so that power can be more evenly
distributed according to traditional democratic standards. America¹s decline
presents a unique opportunity to restore the Republic, restructure the existing
global-paradigm, and begin to build consensus on the species-threatening
challenges which face us all.
http://www.uruknet.de/?s1=1&p=31244&s2=10
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