Original source URL: http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2006/08/03/mexico-conflict-president-cx_np_0804oxford.html International Mexico Election Dispute May Escalate Oxford Analytica 08.04.06, 6:00 AM ET The occupation of main avenues in the center of Mexico City marks a significant change in the strategy of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who is seeking a recount of last month's presidential election. According to official results, he lost narrowly to Felipe Calderon of the ruling National Action Party (PAN). Lopez Obrador and his Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) had been holding periodic massive rallies in Mexico City: -- Three were held on July 8, 16 and 30. -- The aim apparently was to force the Federal Electoral Tribunal (Trife) to order a recount. -- At the most recent demonstration, Lopez Obrador announced that he would establish permanent camp in the center of Mexico City and asked his supporters to do likewise along the main avenues nearby. Failure to influence the Trife or convince Calderon to support the recount appears to have provoked the change of strategy. In a city where serious traffic jams are common, the blockade has caused enormous disruption. Nonetheless, the Mexico City government, which the PRD heads, has supported it. The trouble caused to commuters, and business losses, have affected negatively support for Lopez Obrador. However, this appears to be a price he is willing to pay. The blockade is unlikely to pressure the Trife to rule a certain way, though it may accelerate its deliberations. Lopez Obrador's main aim may be to annul the presidential election: -- The Trife could annul the election on the grounds that it took place under unfair conditions. Congress would appoint an interim president. A new election would be called in 2007 or 2008. -- The federal government may be forced to break the blockade, creating governability problems, which would prevent Calderon taking office. The reaction of the administration of President Vicente Fox has been subdued. The federal government appears to be seeking not to escalate the conflict: -- Fox has the right to appoint and dismiss heads of the Mexico City police and justice department. He could opt to do this to put them under his control and eliminate the blockade. -- However, he probably is waiting for the Trife ruling. If it proclaims Calderon president-elect, he would act with legal weight behind him. Calderon has pursued a similar approach, condemning the blockade but not demanding concrete action to remove it. Lopez Obrador may escalate the conflict, for example: -- calling for additional blockades in other, even more important, avenues, or on the motorways that connect Mexico City with the rest of the country; or -- closing down the airport. Such actions probably would elicit a reaction from the federal government. However, they would risk fragmenting Lopez Obrador's support among the PRD leadership. Another option that would cause governability problems, and one some senior PRD figures openly have suggested, would be for party members elected to the Chamber of Deputies and Senate to reject their seats. The law clearly states that to install the new Congress at least half its members need to be present: -- The PRD and its coalition allies hold only 160 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 36 in the Senate, far from the number needed to stop the legislature opening on Sept. 1. -- Many coalition members probably would reject the instruction and take their seats, causing serious fragmentation. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that this course of action would be followed. Lopez Obrador's more radical approach signals that he is willing to go to considerable lengths to have a chance of obtaining the presidency. By remaining passive, the federal government has avoided violent confrontation. However, the PRD candidate may go much further. There is a risk of serious violence. To read an extended version of this article, log on to Oxford Analytica's Web site. Oxford Analytica is an independent strategic-consulting firm drawing on a network of more than 1,000 scholar experts at Oxford and other leading universities and research institutions around the world. For more information, please visit http://www.oxan.com. To find out how to subscribe to the firm's Daily Brief Service, click here. -- -------------------------------------------------------- Escaping the Matrix website http://escapingthematrix.org/ cyberjournal website http://cyberjournal.org subscribe cyberjournal list mailto:•••@••.••• Posting archives http://cyberjournal.org/show_archives/ Blogs: cyberjournal forum http://cyberjournal-rkm.blogspot.com/ Achieving real democracy http://harmonization.blogspot.com/ for readers of ETM http://matrixreaders.blogspot.com/ Community Empowerment http://empowermentinitiatives.blogspot.com/ Blogger made easy http://quaylargo.com/help/ezblogger.html
