MER: Iran Next – Part 2


Richard Moore

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Subject: Iran Next - Part 2
Date: Mon, 1 Nov 2004 08:20:45 -0500

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US and ISRAEL Threaten
and Prepare to Attack IRAN
Part 2 - Washington's Recent Years Timeline
  <>(Link to Part 1)

MIDDLEEAST.ORG - MER - Washington - 1 November:   As
preparations to take on Iran one way or another proceed
various groups of various kinds with various agendas are
getting involved.   These days knowing just who is whom, who
is funding and promoting whom, and who is pulling what strings
for what reasons, is itself often quite a task.   This recent
years timeline information for instance comes from a group
calling itself Global Security located in Alexandria,
Virginia, about which we know very little and which seems to
want it that way making it a little suspect.   But even so,
and taking this into consideration, this recent but quite
selective timeline information is useful as the confrontation
with Iran looms closer than ever.

Tomorrow the American election itself will become history.  
The likelihood is the Bush/Cheney/neocon regime will remain in
power; hard as that still is for so many to imagine and
understand.   But should the Democrats win the White House
Middle East policies will be largely in the hands of the
neoliberals and the super money-men like
Israeli-Sharon-connected Haim Saban who have far more in
common with the neocons than has yet been realized by many who
will vote for them.    Whatever happens tomorrow the build-up
to attacking and if at all possible 'regime changing' Iran is
well underway and the showdown increasingly imminent.

<>(Link to Part 1) 

The Coalition for Democracy in Iran was formed in 2001 to
mobilize the efforts of a variety of groups and individuals
across the United States supporting the aspirations of the
Iranian people for freedom, democracy and respect for human
rights in Iran. The CDI strongly supports President Bush's
designation of Iran as part of the deadly "axis of evil."
Michael Ledeen [of the American Enterprise Institute], Morris
Amitay [a former director of the American Israeli Public
Affairs Committee, or AIPAC], and James Woolsley [former CIA
director] formed the Coalition for Democracy in Iran, which
has strong ties to the exiled Reza Pahlavi, the deceased
shah's son.

29 January 2002
In his first State of the Union address, President Bush named
three countries that he said continue to sponsor terror: North
Korea, Iran and Iraq. He called them and their terrorist
allies "an axis of evil," and said the price of indifference
to them would be "catastrophic." He also warned that the
country cannot afford to delay in further responding to the
terrorist threat. "Time is not on our side," he said. "I will
not wait on events, while dangers gather. I will not stand by,
as peril draws closer and closer."

01 June 2002
Speaking to the graduating class at the U.S. Military Academy
at West Point, New York, President Bush said "Containment is
not possible when unbalanced dictators with weapons of mass
destruction can deliver those weapons on missiles or secretly
provide them to terrorist allies.... We have our best chance
since the rise of the nation state in the 17th century to
build a world where the great powers compete in peace instead
of prepare for war.... America has, and intends to keep,
military strengths beyond challenge, thereby making the
destabilizing arms races of other eras pointless, and limiting
rivalries to trade and other pursuits of peace."

20 May 2003
Senator Sam Brownback introduced the Iran Democracy Act,
asking for $50 million to fund opposition groups dedicated to
the overthrow of the Islamic regime. The Iran Democracy Act
would provide funds for pro-democracy broadcasting into Iran,
would reform radio Farda to make it more effective, and would
state that it is the policy of the United States to support
transparent, full democracy in Iran; to support an
internationally-monitored referendum in Iran by which the
Iranian people can peacefully change the system of government
in Iran.

02 June 2003
The United States and its allies expressed concern at the
Evian G-8 Summit about Iran's covert nuclear weapons program,
stating that "we will not ignore proliferation implications of
Iran's advanced nuclear program" and that "we offer our
strongest support to comprehensive IAEA examination of this
country's nuclear program."

10 June 2003
California Democrat Brad Sherman is set to introduce a bill in
the House of Representatives that would serve as a counterpart
to Senator Brownback's Iran Democracy Act, which will allocate
approximately $57 million to Iranian opposition groups and
satellite TVs. Sherman's bill, however, will also slap new
sanctions on Iran, a "total" embargo" in order to "encourage
the people of Iran to bring about a more peaceful and
democratic government,"

June 2003
As of June 2003 a new national security presidential directive
on Iran had gone through several competing drafts, but had yet
to be approved by President Bush.

16 June 2003
The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) report on Iran
has been given out to IAEA members prior to the IAEA Board of
Governors meeting which begins June 16.

3 July 2003
Officials say Israel will destroy Natanz plant if Iran
operates it Mark Hibbs Nucleonics Week, July 3, 2003

12 February 2004
On February 12, the Senate passed an important resolution, S.
Res. 304, that was submitted that same day by Senator
Brownback. Denouncing the elections as harmful for true
democratic forces in Iran, the resolution stated that the
policy of the United States should be to advocate a democratic
government in Iran that will restore freedom to the people of
Iran, abandon terrorism, protect human rights, and live in
peace and security with the international community.

08 March 2004
On 26 November 2003 the International Atomic Energy Agency's
Board requested the Director General to submit a comprehensive
report on the implementation of the resolution on Iran by mid-
February 2004, for consideration by the 08 March 2004 Board of
Governors, or to report earlier if appropriate.

06 May 2004
The House passed 
H.CON.RES.398, which was introduced by HIRC Chairman Henry
Hyde (R-IL) on March 25. It expresses "the concern of Congress
over Iran's development of the means to produce nuclear
weapons," and was passed under "suspension of the rules" on 06
May 2004. The final tally was 376 for the resolution, three
against, 14 answering "present," and 40 not voting. Opponents
of this concurrent resolution charged that it led the country
down the road to war against Iran. This resolution demands
that Iran immediately cease all efforts to acquire nuclear
enrichment activities and calls for the country to honor its
stated commitments to grant IAEA inspectors unrestricted
access to nuclear sites. But the resolution also calls upon
all state parties to the Nuclear Nonproliferation
Treaty--including the United States--to use ``all appropriate
means to deter, dissuade, and prevent Iran from acquiring
nuclear weapons.'' It also "calls on the President to use all
appropriate means to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear
weapons..." Even if this bill doesn't authorize the use of
force against Iran, it creates a precedent for future
escalation, as did similar legislation endorsing ``regime
change'' in Iraq back in 1998. This legislation called for yet
more and stricter sanctions on Iran , including a demand that
other countries also impose sanctions on Iran. Critics charged
that sanctions were unmistakably a move toward war,
particularly when, as in this legislation, a demand is made
that the other nations of the world similarly isolate and
blockade the country.

15 July 2004
On 15 July 2004
William S. Lind suggested that "an American-Israeli
attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Such an attack may very
well be on the agenda as the "October Surprise," the
distraction President George W. Bush desperately needs if the
debacle in Iraq is not to lead to his defeat in November."

22 July 2004
Another concurrent resolution(
S.CON.RES.81 calls upon all states
party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), including the
United States, to use appropriate means to prevent Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons, was passed/agreed to in the Senate
on 22 July 2004. This slightly less inflamatory bill was
accepted by the House in conference, replacing the more
inflamatory language of

25 July 2004
Iranian Intelligence Minister Ali Yunesi said in the
northeastern city of Gorgan on 25 July 2004 that there is a
"weak" possibility that archfoe Israel will attack Iran, Fars
News Agency reported the same day. "Still, Iran has thought of
the measures needed to repulse all attacks," he said.
Separately, the head of the Iranian regular army's land
forces, Brigadier General Nasir Mohammadifar, said in Mashhad
in northeastern Iran on 25 July, "America would have attacked
Iran by now if it were sure it could defeat us." Mohammadifar
told a gathering of army inspectors that the United States is
"intensely aware" of its "absolute" inability to attack Iran.

17 August 2004
Brig. Gen. Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, the deputy chief of the
elite Revolutionary Guards, said in a statement issued 17
August 2004, "If Israel fires a missile into the Bushehr
nuclear power plant, it has to say goodbye forever to its
Dimona nuclear facility, where it produces and stockpiles
nuclear weapons." The head of the Revolutionary Guards'
political bureau, Yadollah Javani, said said in a separate
statement that "All the territory under the control of the
Zionist regime, including its nuclear facilities, are within
the range of Iran's advanced missiles."

20 August 2004
Iran might launch pre-emptive strikes to protect its nuclear
facilities if they are threatened, Defence Minister Ali
Shamkhani said in remarks broadcast on 20 August 2004. "We
won't sit with our hands tied and wait until someone does
something to us," Shamkhani told Arabic channel Al Jazeera
when asked what Iran would do if the United States or Israel
attacked its atomic facilities. "Some military leaders in Iran
are convinced that the pre-emptive measures that America is
talking about are not their right alone," he added in Persian.
"Any strike on our nuclear facilities will be regarded as a
strike on Iran and we will respond with all our might."

13 September 2004
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will consider
Iran's nuclear efforts during the IAEA Board meeting scheduled
for 13 September in Vienna, Austria. The US may resort to the
United Nations Security Council in an attempt to impose
sanctions on Iran. The IAEA Board of Governors may report
Iran's noncompliance to the United Nations Security Council,
and the Security Council may take action under Articles 39
through 41 of the United Nations Charter to encourage or order
Iran to cease its programs that would contribute to building a
nuclear weapons capability. From 20-24 September 2004 the 48th
Regular Session of the IAEA General Conference meets in
Vienna, Austria.

02 November 2004
John Kerry's position is that "A nuclear armed Iran is an
unacceptable risk to the national security of the United
States and our allies in the region. While we have been
preoccupied in Iraq, Iran has reportedly been moving ahead
with its nuclear program. We can no longer sit on the
sidelines and leave the negotiations to the Europeans. It is
critical that we work with our allies to resolve these issues
and lead a global effort to prevent Iran from obtaining the
technology necessary to build nuclear weapons. Iran claims
that its nuclear program is only to meet its domestic energy
needs. John Kerry's proposal would call their bluff by
organizing a group of states to offer Iran the nuclear fuel
they need for peaceful purposes and take back the spent fuel
so they cannot divert it to build a weapon. If Iran does not
accept this offer, their true motivations will be clear. Under
the current circumstances, John Kerry believes we should
support the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA)
efforts to discern the full extent of Iran's nuclear program,
while pushing Iran to agree to a verifiable and permanent
suspension of its enrichment and reprocessing programs. If
this process fails, we must lead the effort to ensure that the
IAEA takes this issue to the Security Council for action."

Some analysts predict that Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon as early as 2006.


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Richard Moore (rkm)
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