Korean War II: on the brink of apocalypse


Richard Moore

In this post:

  1.  North Korea's War Strategy of Massive Retaliations
      against US Attacks

  2.  Russia says Korean standoff a step from disaster

  3.  Go home, North Korea tells US

  4.  War at 'any moment'
  5.  North Korea issues war warning to US

  6.  Powell says talks over and warns Pyongyang

  7.  U.S. has plan to bomb North Korea

Delivered-To: •••@••.•••
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 18:10:06 -0400
To: •••@••.•••
From: Paul Wolf <•••@••.•••>
Subject: North Korea's War Strategy of Massive Retaliations


  1.  North Korea's War Strategy of Massive Retaliations
      against US Attacks

  2.  Russia says Korean standoff a step from disaster

  3.  Go home, North Korea tells US

  4.  War at 'any moment'
  5.  North Korea issues war warning to US

  6.  Powell says talks over and warns Pyongyang


North Korea's War Strategy of Massive Retaliations against US Attacks

By Han Ho Suk, Center for Korean Affairs, 4/24/2003

1. North Korea Can Engage the US in Total War

North Korea is one of the few nations that can engage in a total war
with the United States. The US war planners recognize this fact. For
example, on March 7, 2000, Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, the US commander in
Korea at the time, testified at a US congressional hearing that "North
Korea is the country most likely to involve the United States in a
large-scale war."

North Korea, which can and is willing to face up to the sole military
superpower of the world, cannot be called a weak nation. Nevertheless,
Western press and analysts distort the truth and depict North Korea as
an "impoverished" nation, starving and on the brink of imminent collapse.
An impoverished, starving nation cannot face down a military superpower.
Today few nations have military assets strong enough to challenge the US
military. Russia, though weakened by the collapse of the Soviet Union,
has enough assets to face up to the US. China, somewhat weaker than
Russia, too, has strong military that can challenge the US. However,
both Russia and China lack the political will to face down the US.

In contrast, North Korea has not only the military power but also the
political will to wage total war against the United States. North Korea
has made it clear that it will strike all US targets with all means, if
the US mounted military attacks on North Korea. That North Korea's threat
is no bluff can be seen from the aggressive actions taken by North Korea
since the Korean War armistice, most recent of which is North Korea's
attempt to capture an American spy plane. In the morning of March 1, 2003,
an American RC-132S spy plane, Cobra Ball, took off from a US airbase in
Okinawa, and cruised along the East coast of North Korea collecting
electronic signals. The US intelligence suspected that North Korea was
about to test a long-range missile and the plane was there to monitor
the suspected missile launch.

When the US plane reached a point about 193 km from the coast of North
Korea, two MiG-29 and two MiG-21 fighter planes showed up unexpectedly.
The North Korean planes approached within 16 m and signaled the US plane
to follow them. The US pilot refused to follow the command and left the
scene posthaste. The US plane was tailed by the hostiles for about 22 min
but let the US spy plane go. There are two key points to be observed here.

First, the hostile planes waited for the US plane at the Uhrang airbase,
located about 200 km from the point of air encounter. They knew that the
US plane was coming. The North Korean planes flew 200 km to intercept the
US plane. Did the US plane see them coming? If it did, why no evasive
action? After intercepting the US plane, the hostile planes dogged it for
22 min. Why no American planes for the rescue? The US crew must have
informed the base of the danger they were in, but no action was taken by
the base. If Kim Jong Il had given the command, the MiGs would have shot
down the US plane and returned to their base before the US could have
scrambled war planes.

Second, North Korea intercepted an American spy plane flying 200 km from
its coast. According to the international norm, a nation's territorial
air space extends 19 km from its coast line. The US is the exception and
claims air space of 370 km from its coast line; any foreign airplane
violating this extended air space is challenged or shot down by the US

2. North Korea's Massive Retaliation Strategy

North Korea's war plan in case of an US attack is total war, not the
'low-intensity limited warfare' or 'regional conflict' talked about
among the Western analysts. North Korea will mount a total war if
attacked by the US. There are three aspects to this war plan.

First, total war is North Korea's avowed strategy in case of US
preemptive attacks. The US war on Iraq shows that the US can and will
mount preemptive strikes in clear violation of international laws,
and the United Nations is powerless to stop the US. Any nation that is
weak militarily may be attacked by the US at will. It is reasonable
for North Korea to deter US attacks with threats of total war.

Second, North Korea expects no help from China, Russia, or other nations
in case of war with the US. It knows that it will be fighting the
superpower alone. Nominally, China and Russia are North Korea's allies
but neither ally is expected to provide any assistance to North Korea
in case of war. Neither nation can or is willing to protect North Korea
from attacks by the US, and North Korea alone can and will protect itself
from US attacks. This principle of self-defense applies to all nations.

Third, North Korea's total war plan has two components: massive
conventional warfare and weapons of mass destruction. If the US mounts a
preemptive strike on North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear plants, North Korea
will retaliate with weapons of mass destruction: North Korea will mount
strategic nuclear attacks on the US targets. The US war planners know
this and have drawn up their own nuclear war plan. In a nuclear exchange,
there is no front or rear areas, no defensive positions or attack
formations as in conventional warfare. Nuclear weapons are offensive
weapons and there is no defense against nuclear attacks except
retaliatory nuclear attacks. For this reason, North Korea's war plan is
offensive in nature: North Korea's war plan goes beyond repulsing US
attackers and calls for destruction of the United States.

The US war plan '5027' calls for military occupation of North Korea; it
goes beyond the elimination of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction.
The US military regards North Korea its main enemy and likewise North
Korea regards the US its main enemy. South Korea, too, regards North
Korea its main enemy but North Korea does not regard South Korea its
main enemy because South Korea is a client state of the United States
and has no ability or power to act independent of the US. North Korea's
war plan is not for invading South Korea but for destroying the US.

3. North Korea's Military Capability

All nations keep their military capability secret. North Korea is no
exception and it is not easy to assess North Korea's military power. The
US claims that it knows North Korea's military secrets. The United States
collects intelligence on North Korea using a variety of means: American
U-2, RC-135, EP-3 and other high-altitude spy planes watch over North
Korea 24 hours 7 days a week. The US 5th Air Reconnaissance Squadron has
U-2R, U-2S, and other advanced spy planes at the Ohsan airbase in South
Korea. In addition, the US has 70 KH-11 spy satellites hovering over
North Korea.

In spite of such a massive deployment of intelligence collection assets,
the US intelligence on North Korea is faulty at best. Donald Gregg, a
former US ambassador to Seoul and a 30-year CIA veteran, has admitted
that the US intelligence on North Korea has been the longest lasting
story of failure in the annals of US intelligence. Gregg said that even
the best spy gadget in the US arsenal cannot read what's on Kim Jong
Il's mind. US Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld said that North Korea uses
underground optical fibers for military communication and that it is
nearly impossible to plant human agents in North Korea.

Although North Korea's military secrets are impervious to US spy
operations, one can draw some general pictures from information
available in the public domain.

a) North Korea makes its own weapons

North Korea has annual production capacity for 200,000 AK automatic guns,
3,000 heavy guns, 200 battle tanks, 400 armored cars and amphibious crafts.
North Korea makes its own submarines, landing drafts, high-speed missile-
boats, and other types of warships. Home-made weaponry makes it possible
for North Korea to maintain a large military force on a shoestring budget.
North Korea defense industry is made of three groups: weapon production,
production of military supplies, and military-civilian dual-use product

North Korea has 17 plants for guns and artillery, 35 plants for ammunition,
5 plants for tanks and armored cars, 8 plants for airplanes, 5 plants for
warships, 3 plants for guided missiles, 5 plants for communication
equipment, and 8 plants for biochemical warheads - 134 plants in total.
In addition, many plants that make consumer products are designed so that
they can be made to produce military items with minimum modification.
About 180 of defense related plants are built underground in the rugged
mountainous areas of Jagang-do. Several small to medium hydro-power plants
serve these plants so that it would be nearly impossible for the US to cut
off power to the plants.

b) North Korea has its own war plans

North Korea is mountainous and its coasts are long and jagged. The Korean
peninsula is narrow on its waste. North Korea's weapons and war tactics
are germane to Korea's unique geography. North Korea has developed its
own war plans unique to fighting the US in a unique way. North Korea's
military is organized into several independent, totally integrated and
self-sufficient fighting units, that are ready for action at any time.

c) North Korean soldiers are well indoctrinated

The US commanders admit that North Korean soldiers are highly motivated
and loyal to Kim Jong Il, and that they will fight well in case of war.
Karl von Clausewitz said that people's support for war, military
commanders' ability and power, and the political leadership are the
three essentials for winning war. He failed to include the political
indoctrination of the soldiers, which is perhaps more important than
the other factors cited.

During the Iraq War just ended, the main cause of Iraq's defeat was the
low moral of its soldiers. Iraqi soldiers had no will to stand and fight,
and they ran away or surrendered without fight. Iraqi soldiers believed
in Allah protecting them and became easy preys to the US military. North
Korean soldiers are taught to fight to the bitter end. In September 1996,
a North Korean submarine got stranded at Kangrung, South Korea, and its
crew abandoned the ship. Eleven of the crew committed suicide and the
rest fought to the last man except one who was captured. In June 1998,
another submarine got caught in fishing nets at Sokcho and its crew
killed themselves. Such is the fighting spirit of North Korean soldiers.

d) North Koreans are combat ready

One cannot fight war without military preparedness. North Korea's regular
army is for offensive actions whereas its militias are homeland defense.
North Korea's regular army consists of 4 corps in the front area, 8 corps
in the rear area, one tank corps, 5 armored corps, 2 artillery corps, and
1 corps for the defense of Pyongyang, South Korea has 19 infantry
divisions whereas North Korea has 80 divisions and brigades.

A North Korean infantry division has 3 infantry regiments, 1 artillery
regiment (3 battalions of 122 mm rocket launchers and 1 battalion of 152
mortars), one tank battalion of 31 tanks, one anti-tank battalion, one
anti-aircraft battalion, one engineer battalion, one communication
battalion, one light-infantry battalion, one recon battalion, and one
chemical warfare battalion.

North Korea's militias consist of 1.6 million self-defense units, 100,000
people's guards, 3.9 million workers militia, 900,000 youth guard units.
These militias are tasked to defend the homeland. The militias are fully
armed and undergo military trainings regularly.

i) Artillery

North Korea has 2 artillery corps and 30 artillery brigades equipped with
120mm self-propelled guns, 152mm self-propelled mortars, 170mm guns with
a range of 50 km, 240 mm multiple rocket launchers with a range of 45 km,
and other heavy guns. North Korea has about 18,000 heavy guns. North
Korea's 170mm Goksan gun and 240mm multiple-tube rocket launchers are the
most powerful guns of the world. These guns can lob shells as far south
as Suwon miles beyond Seoul. The big guns are hidden in caves. Many of
them are mounted on rails and can fire in all directions. They can rain
500,000 conventional and biochemical shells per hour on US troops near
the DMZ. The US army bases at Yijong-bu, Paju, Yon-chun, Munsan,
Ding-gu-chun, and Pochun will be obliterated in a matter of hours.

The US army in Korea is equipped with Paladin anti-artillery guns that
can trace enemy shells back to the guns and fire shells at the enemy guns
with pin-point accuracy. However, it takes for the Paladins about 10 min
to locate the enemy guns, during which time the Paladins would be targeted
by the enemy guns Gen. Thomas A Schwartz, a former US army commander in
Korea, stated that the US army in Korea would be destroyed in less than
three hours.

ii). Blitz Klieg

North Korea has tanks, armored cars, and self-propelled artillery for
blitz klieg. North Korea has one tank corps and 15 tank brigades. The
tank corps has 5 tank regiments, each of which has 4 heavy tank battalions,
1 light-tank battalion, one mechanized infantry battalion, 2 self-propelled
artillery battalions.

US tanks are designed to operate in open fields. In 1941, Rommel of Germany
defeated British troops in North Africa with tanks. The largest tank battle
was fought at Kursk in 1943, in which the Soviets defeated Germans. In 1973,
Egypt defeated Israeli tanks with anti-tank missiles. All of these tank
battles were fought in open fields. The Gulf War and the recent war in Iraq
saw US tanks in open fields. American and Western tank commanders do not
know how to fight tank battles in rugged terrains like those of Korea. Tank
battles in Korea will be fought on hilly terrains without any close air
cover, because North Korean fighters will engage US planes in close dog

North Korea has developed tanks ideally suited for the many rivers and
mountains of Korea. These tanks are called "Chun-ma-ho", which can navigate
steep slopes and cross rivers as much as 5.5 m deep. North Korea's main
battle tanks - T-62s - have 155 mm guns and can travel as fast as 60 km per
hour. The US main tanks - M1A - have 120 mm guns and cannot travel faster
than 55 km per hour. North Korean tanks have skins 700 mm thick and TOW-II
is the only anti-tank missile in the US arsenal that can penetrate this
armored skin.

North Korea began to make anti-tank missiles in 1975 and has been improving
its anti-tank missiles for the past 30 years. North Korea's anti-tank
missiles are rated the best in the world and several foreign nations buy
them. The US army in Korea relies on 72 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters to
kill North Korean tanks. Each Apache has 16 Hell-Fire anti-tank missiles.
As shown in the recent Iraq war, Apaches are fragile and can be easily shot
down even with rifles. North Korea has about 15,000 shoulder-fired anti-air
missiles ("wha-sung") and Apaches will be easy targets for wha-sung missiles.
On December 17, 1994, a wha-sung missile brought down an American OH-58C spy
helicopter which strayed north of the DMZ.

North Korea has 4 mechanized corps and 24 mechanized brigades. Each brigade
has 1 tank battalion (31 tanks), 1 armored battalion (46 armored cars), 4
infantry battalions, one 122mm battalion (18 guns), one 152 mm battalion
(18 guns), one anti-aircraft battalion (18 guns), anti-tank battalion (9
armored cars with anti-tank missiles and 12 anti-tank guns), one armored
recon company (3 light armored cars, 7 armored cars, and 8 motor-cycles),
one mortar company (6 mortars), one engineer company, one chemical company,
and one communication company. The US army has A-10 attack planes to counter
North Korea's mechanized units. In case of war, the skies over Korea will be
filled with fighters in close dog-fights and the A-10s would be ineffective.

The bulk of North Korea's mechanized and tank units are positioned to cross
the DMZ at a moment's notice and run over the US and South Korean defenders.
The attackers will be aided by SU-25 attack planes and attack helicopters.
In addition, North Korea has 600 high-speed landing crafts, 140 hovercrafts,
and 3,000 K-60 and other pontoon bridges for river-crossing. North Korea has
700,000 troops, 8,000 heavy guns, and 2,000 tanks placed in more than 4,000
hardened bunkers within 150 km of the DMZ.

iii. Underground Tunnel Warfare

North Korea is the world most-tunneled nation. North Korea's expertise in
digging tunnels for warfare was demonstrated during the Vietnam War. North
Korea sent about 100 tunnel warfare experts to Vietnam to help dig the 250
km tunnels for the North Vietnamese and Viet Gong troops in South Vietnam.
The tunnels were instrumental in the Vietnamese victory.

North Korea's army runs on company-size units. Tunnel warfare is conducted
by independent company-size units. Tunnel entrances are built to withstand
US chemical and biological attacks. Tunnels run zig-zag and have seals,
air-purification units, and safe places for the troops to rest. It is
believed that North Korea has built about 20 large tunnels near the DMZ. A
large tunnel can transport 15,000 troops per hour across the DMZ and place
them behind the US troops.

iv. Special Forces

North Korea has the largest special forces, 120,000 troops, in the world.
These troops are grouped into light infantry brigades, attack brigades,
air-borne brigades, and sea-born brigades - 25 brigades in total. These
troops will be tasked to attack US military installations in Korea, Japan,
Okinawa and Guam.

North Korea has the capacity to transport 20,000 special force troops
at the same time. North Korea has 130 high-speed landing crafts and 140
hovercrafts. A North Korean hovercraft can carry one platoon of troops
at 90 km per hour. Western experts pooh-pooh North Korea's ancient AN-2
transport planes as 1948 relics, but AN-2 planes can fly low beneath US
radars and deliver up to 10 troops at 160 km per hour. North Korea makes
AN-2s and has about 300 in place. In addition, North Korea has hang-gliders
that can carry 5-20 men each for short hops.

North Korea has developed special bikes for mountain warfare. Special
forces use these bikes for fast deployments on mountains. Switzerland is
the only other nation that has bike-mounted special forces trained for
mountain warfare. The rugged terrains of the Korean Peninsula are ideally
suited for special forces operations. North Korea's special forces will
attack US targets in Japan, Okinawa, and Guam as well. Japan's self
defense units are being reorganized to counter this threat.

How good are North Korea's special forces? In September 1996, a North
Korean submarine was stranded near Kang-nung and the crew were forced to
abandon the ship and land on South Korea. The sub had two special forces
agents who had finished a mission in South Korea and were picked up by
the sub before the sub ran into a rock. The two men fought off an army of
South Korean troops and remained at large for 50 days, during which they
killed 11 of the pursuers.

4. Weapons of Mass Destruction

a. Missile Readiness

North Korea is a nuclear state along with the US, Russia, China, the
Great Britain, France, India, Pakistan, and Israel. North Korea has
succeeded in weaponizing nuclear devices for missile delivery. North
Korea has operational fleets of ICBM and intermediate-range missiles
equipped with nuclear warheads. I have written on this subject
previously and will not replicate the details here.

It was May of 1994, nine years ago, when the US military planners had
first realized that North Korea had the bomb and devised nuclear attack
plans under William Perry, the then US Secretary of Defense. Perry had
estimated that North Korea would have about 100 nuclear warheads by 2000.
Dr. Kim Myong Chul, an expert on Kim Jong Il's war plans, has recently
confirmed that North Korea has more than 100 nukes including
hydrogen bombs. [??? - Paul]

North Korea can produce about 100 missiles a year. It began to make
missiles in 1980 and has about 1,000 missiles of various types in place,
about 100 of which have nuclear warheads. These missiles are hidden in
caves and underground launching pads. At present, the US has no fool-
proof defense against North Korean missiles, and in case of war, North
Korean missiles can do serious damages: several hundreds of thousands
of US troops will die, and scores of US bases and carrier battle groups
will be destroyed. The Patriot anti-missile missiles are deployed in
South Korea but as shown in the recent Iraq war, the Patriots are not
100% accurate or reliable even under ideal conditions.

b. Biochemical Warfare

North Korea has a large stockpile of biochemical weapons. Each Army
corps has a chemical company and each regiment has a chemical platoon.
In the May 1994 nuclear crisis, Perry warned North Korea that the US
would retaliate with nuclear weapons if North Korea used chemical
weapons on US troops.

North Korean troops and citizens are well-prepared for bio-chemical

5. North Korea's Defense Against US Attacks

a. Fortification

North Korea began to build fortifications in 1960s. All key military
facilities are built underground to withstand American bunker-buster
bombs. North Korea has 8,236 underground facilities that are linked
by 547 km of tunnels. Beneath Pyongyang are a huge underground
stadium and other facilities. About 1.2 million tons of food, 1.46
million tons of fuel, and 1.67 million tons of ammunition are stored
in underground storage areas for wartime use.

Most of the underground facilities are drilled into granite rocks and
the entrances face north in order to avoid direct hits by American
bombs and missiles. The B-61 Mod 11 is the main bunker buster in the
US arsenal. A recent test showed that this buster could penetrate only
6 meters of rock. The latest GBU-28 laser-guided bunker-buster can
penetrate to 30m. North Korean bunkers have at least 80 m of top-cover
of solid rocks. North Korea has many false caves that emit heats that
will misdirect unwary GBU-28/37 and BKU-113 bunker-busters.

The US military targets enemy command and control centers based on
the doctrine of chopping off "the head of the snake." With the top
commanders eliminated, the rank and file would be demoralized,
leaderless and would surrender. North Korea's extensive underground
fortification makes this strategy unworkable. In addition, the
underground facilities make US spy planes and satellites impotent.

b. Air Defense

North Korea has a large number of ground-to-air missiles. It has SA-2
and SA-3 missiles against low-flying enemy planes, and SA-5 missiles
for high-altitude planes. SA-5 missiles have an effective range of
250 km. SA-5 missiles can hit enemy planes flying over the middle of
South Korea.

North Korea has reengineered US shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles
captured in Vietnam, and designed its own missile, wha-sung. North
Korea began to manufacture wha-sung missiles in 1980. Wha-sung comes
in two models: SA-7 that has an effective range of 5 km and SA-16
with 10 km range. North Korea has more than 15,000 wha-sung missiles
in place.

In addition to the missiles, North Korea has 12,000 anti-aircraft
guns, including 37mm twin-barrel guns, 23 mm automatics, 57mm, 87mm,
and 100mm heavy guns. These are mostly manually operated and thus not
subject to electronic warfare.

c. Coastal deferens.

North Korea's coastlines are long and jagged. Coastal guns are placed
in fortified tunnels along the coastline. North Korea has six ground-
to-ship missile bases. North Korea has anti-ship missiles of 95km
range, and of 160km range. The latter are for hitting US carrier
battle groups over the horizon. North Korean anti-ship missiles can
hit ships anchored at Inchon on the west and Sokcho on the east.

America's main defense against anti-ship missiles, the Arleigh Burke
class Aegis destroyers are ineffective outside 20-50 km from missile
launch pads.

d. Sea Battles

North Korea has two fleets - the West Fleet and the East Fleet. The
West Fleet has 6 squadrons of 320 ships and the East Fleet has 10
squadron of 460 ships. The navy has a total manpower of 46,000. North
Korean ships are sheltered from US attacks in about 20 bunkers of
200-900 m longs and 14-22 m wide. North Korean ships are small and
agile, designed for coastal defense. North Korean ships carry 46km
range ship-to-ship missiles and 22-channel multiple rocket launchers.

The main enemy of the North Korean navy will be US carrier task
forces. The Russian navy has developed a tactic to deal with US
carriers task forces: massive simultaneous missile attacks. In
addition, Russia has developed the anti-carrier missile, "jun-gal",
that can destroy a carrier. China has developed similar tactics for
destroying US carriers. On April 1, 2003, North Korea test-fired a
high-speed ground-to-ship missile of 60km range. A US carrier task
force of Nimitz class has 6,000 men, 70 planes, and a price tag of
4.5 billion dollars. Destroying even a single career task force will
be traumatic.

A carrier is protected by a shield of 6 Aegis destroyers and nuclear
attack submarines. An Aegis destroyer has an AN/SPY-1 high-capacity
radar system that can track more than 100 targets at the same time.
An Aegis can fire about 20 anti-missile missiles at the same time.
Thus, a career force can track a total of 600 targets at a time and
fire 120 anti-missile missiles at the same time. The anti-missile
missiles have about 50% success under ideal conditions. In actual
battle situations, the hit rate will be much lower and the best
estimate is that the Aegis shield can intercept at most 55 incoming
missiles. Therefore, a volley of about 60 missiles and rockets will
penetrate the Aegis shield and hit the career.

North Korea acquired OSA and KOMAR high-speed missile boats in 1968,
and began to build its own missile boats in 1981. It has more than
50 missile boats, each equipped with 4 missiles of 46km range and
mutiple rocket launchers. In addition, North Korea has about 300
speed boats, 200 torpedo boats and 170 other gunboats. In case of
war, North Korea's small crafts and submarines will swarm around US
career task forces and destroy them.

North Korea has 35 submarines and 65 submersibles. These crafts are
equipped with torpedoes and will be used to attack US careers. They
will also lay mines and block enemy harbors. North Korea has a large
supply of mines. North Korean submarines are small but they are
equipped with 8km rocket launchers and 70km anti-ship missiles, and
they could do some serious damage to US careers.
e. Air Combats

North Korea has three air commands. Each command has a fighter
regiment, a bomber regiment, an AN-2 regiment, an attack helicopter
regiment, a missile regiment, and a radar regiment. Each command
can operate independently. North Korea has 70 airbases, which are
fortified against US attacks. Underground hangars protect the planes
and have multiple exits for the planes to take off on different
runways. North Korea has several fake airfields and fake planes to
confuse US attackers.

It is said that North Korea's planes are obsolete and no match for
US planes. North Korea has 770 fighters, 80 bombers, 700 transports,
290 helicopters, and 84,000 men. In case of war, North Korean planes
will fly low hugging the rugged terrains and attack enemy targets.
US planes are parked above ground at bases in Korea, Japan, Okinawa
and Guam, and make easy targets for missile, rocket and air attacks.
When war breaks out, North Korean missiles, rockets and heavy guns
will destroy the 8 US airbases in South Korea, and any plane in the
air would have no place to land.

North Korea's fighter planes are ill-equipped for air-to-air combats
at long distances. but they can hold their own in close-quarter air
combats. MiG-21 fighters from Bongchun and US F-15 from Ohsan would
meet in less than 5 min, assuming they took off at about the same
time. In about 5 min, hundreds of MiG21s and F-15s would be swirling
in the skies over Korea. Ground-to-air missiles and air-to-air
missiles would have hard time telling friends from foes. F-15Es are
equipped with a radar system that lock on at 180 km for large objects
and 90 km for small objects. Sidewinder missiles have an effective
range of 16km, AMRAAM missiles of 50km, and Sparrow of 55km.

Korea is 100 km wide and 125 km long, and so US air-to-air missiles
would be of limited use and effectiveness, because North Korean MiGs
would approach the US planes in close proximity and commingle with
US planes, and air-to-air missiles will become useless and machines
guns will have to be used. MiG19s have 30mm guns, MiG21s have 23mm
guns, and F-14s have 20mm Valkans. North Korean pilots are trained
to hug the enemy planes so that air-to-air missiles cannot be used.
In contrast, US pilots are trained to lock on the enemy at long
distance with radar and fire missiles. US planes are heavily armed
with electronics and less agile than the light, lean MiGs that can
climb and turn faster than the US planes.

F-14s are about 3.3 times heavier than MiG21s, and F-150Es are
about 3.6 times heavier. MiG21s are 16.6 m long whereas F-14s are
19.1 m and F-15Es 19.43 m long. MiG21s cab climb to 18km, whereas
F-1A can climb to 15.8 km and F-16 to 15.2 km. MiGs get upper hands
in close-range dogfights in which agility matters. In Vietnam, US
planes were forced to jettison auxiliary gas tanks and bombs in
order to engage MiGs. F-150 E planes will carry BLU-113 bunker
busters that weigh 2,250 kg each in the next war in Korea. Loaded
with such a heavy bomb, F-15s will become easy targets for North
Korea's MiGs. US fighter-bombers will be protected by F-15C fighter

MiG21s are North Korea's main workhorse. The MiG21 debuted in 1965
in Vietnam and proved itself as an effective attack fighter. In 1999,
North Korea bought 40 MiG21s from Kazakhstan. During the Vietnam War,
MiG17s shot down dozens of American planes. North Korea sent more
than 200 pilots to fight in the Vietnam War. They were tasked to
defend Hanoi and shot down scores of US planes. North Korea sent 25
pilots to Syria during the 3rd Arab-Israeli war of 1966, and 30
pilots to Egypt and Syria during the 4th Arab-Israeli war of 1973.
In 1976, North Korea sent more than 40 pilots to Syria.

f. Electronic Warfare

The United States excels in electronic warfare and no nation comes
anywhere near the US capability. North Korea began developing its
own electronic warfare methods in 1970. It is believed that North
Korea has advanced electronic warfare ability. It has numerous
counter measures for US electronic warfare. During the recent war
in Iraq, the US dropped e-bombs that disabled the Iraqi electronic
devices. North Korea relies heavily on non-electronic command and
control means, and hence US e-bombs will have limited impacts in
North Korea.

North Korea trains about 100 hackers a year and has computer virus
battalions in place. These hackers are capable of interrupting US
communication networks. In a war game conducted in 1991 by US war
planners, North Korea came out the victor with and without nuclear
weapons. Kim Jong Il has no doubt that his army can beat the US army.

6. US Military Defeats in the Past

Military power dictates the outcome of war. In assessing the next
war in Korea, the military power of the opponents must be examined
objectively. Until now, North Korea's military power has not been
properly studied. In general, Western experts tend to underestimate
North Korea's military strength. Politicians in America and South
Korea play down North Korean threats for political reasons.

It has been said that North Korean army is large in numbers but
their equipment are obsolete, and hence it is a weak army. The US
war planners assess North Korean army using computer simulations of
war in Korea. US war plan for the recent Iraq war was refined using
more than 40 computer-simulated wars in Iraq. The computer
simulation models use weapon system features among other factors
to determine the outcome.

It is true that the advanced weapons were instrumental in the US
victory in the Gulf War, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq. On the
other hand, the US army was defeated by ill-equipped foes in Korea
and Vietnam. The latter two wars show that superior weapons do not
always lead to a victory. North Korean and Chinese forces in Korea
and the Vietnamese forces fought with superior tactics and stronger
fighting fighting spirits.

In the next war in Korea, the US army will face an enemy much more
determined and better equipped than the army in the Korean War of


Russia says Korean standoff a step from disaster

ABC News, 23 Apr 2003 22:50 AEST

Russia's top North Korea expert says the Korean peninsula remained
on the brink of disaster as talks between Washington and Pyongyang
on resolving a nuclear arms standoff opened in China.

"It is probable that as early as tomorrow events may take a
disastrous course," Itar-Tass news agency quoted Deputy Foreign
Minister Alexander Losyukov as saying in Tokyo after meeting
Japanese officials.

Losyukov, Russia's key expert on North Korea, was quoted as saying
he regretted that the row over Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions had
been "pushed to the limit".

Losyukov met reclusive North Korean leader Kim Jong-il for several
hours of talks in January after the United States accused Pyongyang
of secretly pressing ahead with its nuclear programme.

US and North Korean negotiators began talks in Beijing earlier on
Wednesday aimed at trying to end the row.

Losyukov has welcomed the talks and said Russia, which has good
relations with both North and South Korea and shares a tiny border
with the North, could join the negotiation process at a later
stage, if invited.

The Korean peninsula remains the Cold War's last flashpoint and
reclusive North Korea, which talks regularly about war being
imminent, fears it could be the next target after the quick US
military campaign in Iraq.


Go home, North Korea tells US

7.20AM BST, 24 Apr 2003 North Korea has told the commander of US
forces in South Korea to pack up his "cancer-like" troops and go
home after he said Pyongyang posed many threats to global stability.

General Leon LaPorte said the threats included the communist North's
crumbling economy, an active nuclear arms plan, proliferation of
missile technologies, large conventional forces and special forces
aimed at South Korea.

The speech by LaPorte, who commands the 37,000 US troops based in
South Korea, represented "unreasonable gangster-like logic, an
intolerable challenge and provocation" said North Korea's ruling
party newspaper, Rodong Sinmun.

"He is well advised to go back home with the troops present in South
Korea before being punished for telling such whopping lies," said
the paper.

"It is a hard fact that the US troops in South Korea are the biggest
cancer-like entity standing in the way of peace and reunification on
the Korean peninsula," the newspaper continued.

Analysts say North Korea's bombastic rhetoric is often mainly for
domestic consumption and best taken with a large grain of salt, but
it sometimes amplifies Pyongyang's policies.

The removal of US troops based in South Korea under a 50-year-old
security treaty is a longstanding goal of North Korea, whose
doctrine still calls for the imposition of communist rule over the
capitalist South.

US and North Korean officials have entered a second day of talks
in Beijing, with Chinese officials also present, on the North's
suspected nuclear arms programmes.

LaPorte's tough comments raised some eyebrows among diplomats in
Seoul but they said it was part of the pre-talks posturing by both


N. Korea: War at 'any moment'

CNN, April 24, 2003

PYONGYANG, North Korea --North Korea is sticking by its demand
that Washington end its "hostile policy" towards Pyongyang, saying
that in the present situation war may break out at "any moment" on
the Korean Pensinsula.

The stark warning came as U.S. and North Korean officials began a
second day of talks in Beijing aimed at easing months of tensions
over the North's alleged nuclear weapons program.

In its statement carried Thursday on the North Korean state news
agency, Pyongyang said that the U.S.-led war in Iraq has shown that
the only way for a country to protect itself was to have a powerful

In such a situation it said the "master key" to any progress in the
talks was for Washington to make a "bold switchover" in its policy
toward the North.

The statement, which made reference to the Beijing talks, appears
to be a hardening of Pyongyang's long-standing position seeking some
kind of security guarantee from the U.S. before it will talk about
dismantling its nuclear program.

"In actuality, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is so tense
that a war may break out any moment due to the U.S. moves," the
North said.

The U.S. has insisted it will not be blackmailed, but says it has
no plans to invade North Korea or to resort to any kind of military

Nonetheless, officials say their message to the North is that it
must immediately end production of nuclear weapons and establish an
intrusive inspections regime.

'Violation of sovereignty'

The talks taking place in Beijing -- scheduled to continue until
Friday -- are the first official meetings between the U.S. and North
Korea since last October when Washington said North Korean officials
admitted to them that they were pursuing an active nuclear weapons

North Korea, for its part, denies that any such admission took place
and says the U.S. is using its accusation as an excuse to justify
military action.

In its statement Thursday, the North said the recent war in Iraq had
shown that demands for arms verification were a pretext for war.

"The inspection and disarmament forced by the U.S. upon an independent
state in violation of its sovereignty and its right to existence
without any proper reason and ground are only aimed to justify and
legalize aggression and war," the statement said.

As a nuclear weapons state itself, the North's statement went on, the
United States should open its weapons facilities to inspections too.

"The DPRK-U.S. talks should, therefore, discuss and settle the issue
of the U.S. renunciation of its hostile intention and policy toward
the DPRK before talking about the 'verification' and the dismantlement
of physical deterrent force," it said.

DPRK is the acronym for Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the
official name for North Korea.

Officials attending the talks in Beijing have remained tight-lipped
about their progress but observers say there is little likelihood of
any major breakthrough being announced. Most say the best outcome
will be an agreement to meet for further talks at a later date.

On Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing spoke by phone
with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and both agreed the talks
were "beneficial", China's state-run Xinhua news agency reported on

"The two sides exchanged views on how to properly handle the nuclear
issue of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and both
believed that the ongoing talks in Beijing [were[ beneficial," the
Xinhua report said.

The U.S. delegation to the talks is led by the same official who
confronted Pyongyang about its nuclear program last October --
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian Affairs James Kelly.

The North Korean team is headed by Deputy Director General Li Gun
from the American Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
-- a relatively low-level official who, observers say, does not have
the authority to cut any major deals with the U.S.

An official wall of silence has surrounded the talks.

But South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper quoted sources as saying
Kelly demanded North Korea dismantle its nuclear plans verifiably
and irreversibly.

From the North's side, the paper said Li admitted the Iraq war had
taught Pyongyang to see a non-aggression pact. [sic]


North Korea issues war warning to US

The Guardian, April 24, 2003

Even as North Korean negotiators met today with US officials to
seek a solution to the standoff over the communist state's nuclear
ambitions, Pyongyang warned that war could break out on the Korean

The North's Korean people's army (KPA) vowed to "put all people
under arms and turn the whole country into a fortress", and urged
its soldiers to become "human bombs and fighters ready to blow up
themselves" to protect leader Kim Jong Il.

The North's defence minister, Kim Il Chol, said: "If the US
imperialists and their followers intrude into even an inch of the
inviolable sky, land and sea of the [North] ... the KPA will deal
merciless deadly blows at the aggressors and achieve a final
victory in the confrontation with the US."

Kim made the comments in a speech on the eve of the North Korean
military's 71st anniversary, Pyongyang's official news agency
KCNA said. North Korea routinely issues such belligerent remarks
against the United States.

In a separate dispatch, KCNA said Pyongyang was ready to settle
the dispute over its suspected nuclear weapons programmes and
that a resolution was up to the United States. The "master key"
for successful talks was for the United States to drop its
hostile policy toward Pyongyang, it said.

KCNA said the war in Iraq had shown the only way for a country
to protect itself was to have a strong military deterrent. "In
actuality, the situation on the Korean peninsula is so tense that
a war may break out any moment due to the US moves," KCNA said.

North Korea has repeatedly accused Washington of planning to
invade it, once US forces are done in Iraq. Officials from Seoul
and Washington have said the swift US-led victory in Iraq prompted
North Korea to agree to the nuclear talks.

US and North Korean negotiators met in Beijing yesterday for talks
on the nuclear issue, which were scheduled to continue until
tomorrow. The talks are the first since the nuclear crisis erupted
six months ago. South Korea's foreign minister has said
negotiations could take as long as three years.

Japan and South Korea hope to join subsequent discussions and have
sent diplomats to Beijing to monitor the talks.

The nuclear crisis began in October when US officials said North
Korea admitted running a clandestine nuclear weapons program in
violation of a 1994 deal.

The United States has said it wants to resolve the crisis through
diplomacy, but has not ruled out military action.

Staff and agencies.


Powell says talks over and warns Pyongyang

AFP, April 25 2003

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said that three-way talks
between North Korea, China and the United States had ended a day
earlier than expected and warned Pyongyang that Washington would
not respond to threats.

Mr Powell said the talks had "concluded" and that while US and
Chinese officials might hold talks on Friday, the North Korean
involvement was over. Three days of talks, from April 23 to 25 had
been scheduled initially.

While announcing the end of the discussions, Mr Powell delivered
a strongly worded warning for North Korea not to make threats as
Pyongyang ratcheted up its rhetoric.

"They should not leave this series of discussions that have been
held in Beijing with the slightest impression that the United
States and its partners and the nations in the region will be
intimidated by bellicose statements or by threats or actions they
think might get them more attention or might force us to make a
concession that we would not otherwise make," he said.

"They would be very ill-advised to move in that direction," Mr
Powell said after a speech to the US Asia-Pacific Council.

In the address, Mr Powell said all three sides had presented
"strong views" in the talks, which were called in an effort to
ease the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula.

"Strong views were presented, the North Koreans presented their
point of view strongly, the Chinese did as well, as did the
United States," Mr Powell said.

"The sides will return to their capitals and assess what they
heard, analyse proposals that were put down by the parties and
determine where we will go next," he said.

As the second day of talks wrapped up, Pyongyang said the
situation on the peninsula was "so tense that a war may break
out any moment due to the US moves".

Delivered-To: •••@••.•••
 From: "Global Network" <•••@••.•••>
To: "Global Network Against Weapons" <•••@••.•••>
Date: Thu, 24 Apr 2003 12:01:24 -0400

Report: U.S. has plan to bomb North Korea

From the International Desk
Published 4/22/2003 5:14 AM


SYDNEY, Australia, April 22 (UPI) -- The Pentagon has
produced plans to bomb North Korea's nuclear plant at
Yongbyon, if the rouge state goes ahead with
reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods that would
yield enough plutonium for six nuclear weapons,
according to a published report Tuesday.

Citing "well-informed sources close to U.S. thinking,"
the Australian newspaper reported the plan also
involves a military strike against North Korean
artillery stationed in the hills above the border with
South Korea.

The artillery threatens Seoul and about 17,000 U.S.
troops stationed south of the Demilitarized Zone.

The Pentagon hardliners said to be behind the plan
reportedly believe the precision strikes envisaged in
it would not lead to North Korea initiating a general
war it would be certain to lose.

The United States would inform North Korea it was not
aiming to destroy the regime of Kim Jong-il, but merely
destroy its nuclear weapons capacity, the newspaper

However, the Bush administration hasn't made a decision
to accept the plan.

Instead, President George W. Bush has emphasized that
they believe diplomacy can work with North Korea.

The United States, North Korea and China are scheduled
to hold talks in Beijing on Wednesday.

Copyright © 2001-2003 United Press International

Global Network Against Weapons & Nuclear Power in Space
PO Box 90083
Gainesville, FL. 32607
(352) 337-9274
(352) 871-7554 (Cell Phone)


cyberjournal home page: 

"Zen of Global Transformation" home page: 

QuayLargo discussion forum:

cj list archives:

newslog list archives:

subscribe addresses for cj list: