Officials say that if the constitution is defeated, insurgents
will most likely believe that they have won a significant
victory and be encouraged to fight on. Conversely, it is said,
the insurgency will grow stronger if the voters approve the
constitution, because that will anger Sunnis who opposed it
and empower Sunni insurgents who can claim that their views
were ignored.
If the constitution is against Sunni interests, then why is the
U.S. so eager to see it adopted? We must keep in mind here that
the whole constitutional process has been a creation of the
U.S. A constitution that will lead to divisiveness - whether
or not it is adopted, as this article admits - serves the
objective of balkanization very well.
rkm
--------------------------------------------------------
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/30/politics/30vote.html
September 30, 2005
Officials Fear Chaos if Iraqis Vote Down the Constitution
By JOEL BRINKLEY and THOM SHANKER
WASHINGTON, Sept. 29 - Senior American officials say they are
confident that Iraq's draft constitution will be approved in
the referendum to be held Oct. 15, even though Sunni Arabs in
Iraq are mobilizing in large numbers to defeat it.
In testimony before Congress on Thursday, the senior American
military commander in Iraq, Gen. George W. Casey Jr. of the
Army, said the most recent analysis of intelligence from
across the country supported the Bush administration's
optimistic predictions that the referendum would pass.
But if the constitution is defeated, several officials said
they feared that Iraq would descend into anarchy.
Approval "is critically important," a senior administration
official said, "to maintain political momentum. That is the
critical thing for holding this whole thing together."
Private organizations in Iraq, many working with government
financing, say their own analyses, based on discussions with
hundreds of Iraqis, polling data and other information, have
also led many of them to believe that the constitution would
be approved.
Their calculations are complicated, because by law the
constitution will fail if it is rejected by two-thirds of the
voters in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces, even if a majority
of voters nationwide approve it.
In regions dominated by Sunni Arabs, opinion polls have shown
sentiment running just about two to one against it. It is
unclear, in those provinces, how get-out-the-vote campaigns by
the opposing factions may tilt the balance, or how much the
turnout on either side may be suppressed by the continuing
violence.
But no matter how the vote goes, several officials said in
interviews, the violence in Iraq is likely to increase
significantly.
That prediction stands in contrast to the upbeat previous
assessments from President Bush and others in his
administration before other major turning points in Iraq, like
the transition to Iraqi sovereignty in 2004 or the national
elections early this year. The administration argued that
insurgents would be demoralized by the success of democracy
and that violence would decline.
Senator Carl Levin, Democrat of Michigan , asked General Casey
in a pointed exchange during the hearing on Thursday, "If
there's a strong majority of Sunnis, which is very possible,
that vote against that constitution, could that not possibly
lead to a worsening political situation rather than a better
one?"
"I think that's entirely possible," the general replied. "I
mean, as we've looked at this, we've looked for the
constitution to be a national compact, and the perception now
is that it's not, particularly among the Sunnis."
Officials say that if the constitution is defeated, insurgents
will most likely believe that they have won a significant
victory and be encouraged to fight on. Conversely, it is said,
the insurgency will grow stronger if the voters approve the
constitution, because that will anger Sunnis who opposed it
and empower Sunni insurgents who can claim that their views
were ignored.
"A vote for the constitution doesn't mean we're headed for
peace and prosperity," Gen. John P. Abizaid, head of the
Central Command, said in an interview this month. "Iraq is
going to be a pretty difficult security environment for a
while."
A senior official said the Bush administration believed that
the insurgency was likely to continue for years and would
start to decline only "when Iraq's political and economic
system begins to consolidate." The administration officials
agreed to talk only if their names were not used, under
administration policy for their departments.
Sunni Arabs, who held power when Saddam Hussein ruled Iraq,
boycotted the election in January. But now, American officials
and officers of private organizations working in Iraq say
Sunnis are registering to vote in record numbers that exceed
80 percent in many areas.
"There's a massive, massive effort, in mosques and other
places, to get them to register," the Iraq country director
for the National Democratic Institute, said in a telephone
interview on Wednesday. He asked that his name not be used,
because of security concerns. The institute is an organization
financed by the United States government that works to promote
democracy abroad.
Many Sunni Arabs are upset that the draft constitution grants
Kurds and Shiite Arabs significant new authority to set up
semi-independent areas but offers little specifically for
them.
Still, the country director and others say they do not believe
that the Sunni vote is likely to be monolithic. Many Sunni
moderates, they say, are likely to vote in favor of the
constitution and hope to influence how it is put into effect.
The constitution seems likely to be approved by substantial
majorities in the heavily Kurdish north and the predominantly
Shiite south. In ethnically mixed Baghdad, the situation is
more fluid.
Senior Pentagon and military officials who have been closely
monitoring reports from Iraq predict that the referendum will
fail by the two-thirds majority in the Sunni-dominated - and
violence-plagued - Anbar Province in western Iraq. But
intelligence reports indicate that only one other province at
most will vote no by two-thirds.
"Nobody will be surprised to lose Anbar, and maybe one other
province," one Pentagon official said. "We're not going to
lose three."
American political and military officials say a large Sunni
vote will be a sign that democracy is taking hold in Iraq.
Still, the United States is working hard to be sure that the
Sunni opponents will not prevail. Among many steps, State
Department officials said, Zalmay Khalilzad, the United States
ambassador to Iraq, is meeting with Sunni Arab leaders almost
every day, trying to persuade them to vote yes.
Eric Schmitt contributed reporting for this article.
Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company
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