Seasons greetings,
As many others have recognized, and I have often written, we are now
in the midst of a global Great Transformation. By some strange
coincidence, this Great Transformation seems to be synchronized with
our calendar -- coinciding more or less with the beginning of a new
millennium.
'New Millennium' is not a buzzword that people use yet, but they will
soon. I wonder how far we were into the 1900s before people
recognized that the Twentieth Century was a very special century?
World wars, relativity, air travel, radio & TV, nuclear energy, mass
prosperity, computers -- the pattern of radical invention became
clear soon enough, but when was it first recognized as a 'phenomenon
of the century'? By comparison, those phenomena will seem
insignificant compared to those that will be identified with
civilization's Third Millennium.
There are many singular events that can be identified as 'signs of
changing times'. In my own mind, two such events that stand out were
the '98 Seattle protest, and the '01 WTC incident. I pick the Seattle
protest because it symbolizes the growing and deep-seated popular
rejection of the current world order. I pick the WTC incident because
it symbolizes the elite reaction to that rejection. The people said:
"Here's what we think of your old millennium," and the rulers
answered: "Here's what we've got in store for you in the new one."
Again coincidentally, these two events evenly straddle the beginning
of the new millennium, each a year and some months separated from it.
There are of course many dimensions to this Great Transformation. The
events I selected above reflect only one dimension: the relationship
between Western citizens and their governments. I see this as the
most critical dimension however, as that perspective is the one from
which we can identify a path of hope. Only when the people of the
West wake up and make their dreams of democracy real, can the
direction of transformation be shifted toward the salvation of
humanity.
In the rest of this report, I will be exploring the state of the
world, and likely near-future scenarios, assuming that Western
populations remain unable to rouse themselves from their current
hypnotic trance, their dream that they are living in reformable
democracies, their state of denial regarding elite rule and elite
machinations.
* The Geopolitical Dimension
There are four significant players on the geopolitical scene.
1) The Anglo-American Block: controlled by Anglo-American
banking elites, backed up by the Pentagon, seeking global
hegemony, and with EU elites cooperating -- while at the
same time they seek to keep their options open to the East.
2) The Sino-Russian Block: led by Sino-Russian political
elites, supported by a military strategy based on asymmetry,
seeking a multi-polar world, and in alliance with other SCO
members.
3) The Independent Rebels (ie, all those smaller nations
that Washington considers to be 'troublesome to US
interests'): with leadership symbolized by Hugo Chavez, in
an alliance-of-convenience with the Sino-Russian Block, and
increasingly showing the courage to defy the Anglo-
American Block and its imperialist system
4) The Global Insurgency: with leadership embodied in
Hezbollah and in the people of Iraq, Mexico, unoccupied
Palestine, and other similars.
While the Independent Rebels are picking away at Anglo-American
hegemony, and the Global Insurgency is complicating the problems of
imperial management, the Big Game is between the Big Blocks: the West
vs. the East, Washington & London vs. Moscow & Bejing. All the major
international initiatives of these Big Players amount to jockeying
for position in the face of an inevitable confrontation.
The Anglo-American Block is pursuing three parallel strategies. In
the short term, it focuses on domination of the Middle East, in an
effort to control international petroleum markets and to maintain the
dollar as a reserve currency. In a slightly longer term, it sees two
options for itself: a victorious first strike on the Sino-Russian
Block, or -- if a multi-polar world cannot be avoided -- a retreat
into Fortress America. In pursuit of the former it is rapidly
developing a space-based control-of-theater system, and in pursuit of
the latter it is preparing a neoliberal-based merger of Mexico, the
US, and Canada.
Time, meanwhile, is entirely on the side of the Sino-Russian Block.
The longer confrontation can be postponed, the stronger that Block
becomes in relation to its adversary. The ancient Chinese strategic
paradigm is at work here: the wise general wins from position, avoids
combat, and leaves his adversary a way out (acquiescence to
multi-polarity). This Block will not intervene if the US attacks
Iran, partly to delay direct confrontation, and partly because they
are willing to write off the Middle East as 'Anglo-Amercian
territory', in return for de facto recognition of Sino-Russian
hegemony in Eurasia. That fits well with their vision of a
multi-polar world.
It is the Anglo-American elites that are under the pressure of time,
and that is why they are so frantically flailing for position
wherever they can, sacrificing their own economies and civil
societies, and flagrantly violating every standard of international
law and human decency.
The psychically primitive elites of this Block follow in a direct
line from the Vikings, the Crusaders, and the Conquistadors -- they
understand only conquest and exploitation, and they see compromise as
a fatal weakness. The more evolved chess and Go players of the East
see them as cowboys, and are patiently waiting for them to exhaust
their ammo in peripheral battles.
While the Anglo-American Block is managed so as to enrich an elite
clique, the Sino-Russian Block is managed so as to promote national
interests. While the former is desperately cannibalizing its national
infrastructures, the latter is patiently strengthening theirs. This
is why time is on their side.
From a geopolitical perspective the Great Transformation can have one
of two outcomes: (1) Anglo-American hegemony -- in which case the
entire world will for the first time be controlled by a single elite
clique -- or (2) multi-polarity, whereby China will re-emerge as the
world's Great Central Nation, with the five-century tide of Western
Expansionism finally brought to a halt.
* The Economic Dimension
The central economic fact of the Third Millennium is the collision of
an irresistible force with an unmovable object: the paradigm of
industrial development and economic growth cannot be sustained in a
finite world. Economically, this fact exhibits itself as a declining
global economy in real terms, the flight of capital into speculative
markets, the de-industrialization of the entire Western world, and
the impending collapse of the US economy. Environmentally, this fact
exhibits itself as deforestation, loss of topsoils and fisheries, oil
depletion, species extinction, and global warming.
These economic conditions are motivating the Anglo-American grab for
hegemony, and these economic conditions favor the East, with its vast
land mass and its lower level of economic development -- ie, its
lower level of structural economic waste. It will be much easier for
Eurasia (and the third world) to move toward sustainability than it
will be for the West. Again, the national focus of Eurasian elites
has more survival potential than the does the greedy, self-serving
focus of Western elites.
In the West it is the people who are exploring the question of
sustainability, while the elite focus is on increasing the sales of
automobiles, jet travel, and petroleum (despite Gore's hypocritical
campaign posturing). In China, on the other hand, it is the national
leadership which is beginning to understand the need for
sustainability, being the first nation to require photovoltaic cells
in some of its new residential construction.
It is in the economic dimension that the Great Transformation will be
most pronounced. Whether we have a multi-polar or a single-empire
world order will be of interest to political scientists and
historians, but the necessity of sustainability (or die) will effect
everyone directly.
* The Political Dimension
The Age of Enlightenment is over. The liberal mythologies that arose
as an apology for capitalism have been abandoned by Western elites.
In Britain and the US, the standard bearers of neoliberalism, the
death of the democratic myth is all too apparent. Europe lags behind,
but EU elites have no vision of an alternative future. Fortunately
Europeans are considerably more politically evolved than Americans or
Brits, as evidenced by the popular rejection of the neoliberal EU
Constitution. In Europe there is hope for popular democratic impact,
while in the heartland of the Anglo-American Block, one sees mostly
sheep panicking for a path away from chaos, or distracting themselves
with consumerism and television fantasies.
In the Sino-Russian Block, there is little political hope. China, the
heart of the Block, is the longest standing centralized society in
the history of the world (5,000 years or so). One might compare this
with Germany, which until 1871 was still divided into autonomous
units, or the USA, which didn't even exist until a century before
that. The Chinese are so conditioned to hierarchy that there is
little hope of any kind of democratic impact.
If there is to be an effective popular response to the current path
of civilization, if humanity is to be saved, the initiative must come
from the West. In the East the psychology of hierarchy is too deeply
ingrained, and the third world cannot control the course of
geopolitical events, regardless of how enlightened its leaders and
people become.
It is up to us, over-coddled and over-comfortable Westerners, to
begin the process of turning the Great Transformation into the Great
Enlightenment, rather than the New Dark Ages. This can only happen
when we wake up from our pseudo-Enlightenment trance.
rkm
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